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Can Donald Trump become US House Speaker?
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Can Donald Trump become US House Speaker?

FP Explainers • October 5, 2023, 18:08:24 IST
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After Kevin McCarthy was ousted as House Speaker, former US president Donald Trump said that he will do whatever is best for the country. But is he eligible to serve? Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan are favourites, while a slew of lesser names could be set to jump in

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Can Donald Trump become US House Speaker?

With Kevin McCarthy out as Speaker after a revolt from the far-right House Republicans, a hunt for his replacement has begun. McCarthy, who lasted just 270 days in the role he coveted for much of his career,  was ousted after the House passed a resolution “to vacate the office of the speaker” by a 216-210 vote. McCarthy now has the unfortunate distinction of being the first Speaker thus removed in US history. Now, following his exit, all eyes are on the names that could replace McCarthy – including former president Donald Trump. But could Trump actually be the next House Speaker? And who are the other contenders? Let’s take a closer look: Far-fight figures float Trump’s name Some of the far-right Republicans are already floating Trump’s name as House Speaker. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, fresh off her own public controversy, posted on X:

We only have one choice for Speaker: President Donald J. Trump

His policies stopped the globalists and communists more than anyone else.

He is the leader of the Republican Party and the only person we can trust to Save America. pic.twitter.com/s7CD5osr4x

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) October 4, 2023

Congressman Troy E Nehls, meanwhile, posted:

Kevin McCarthy will NOT be running again as Speaker.

I nominate Donald J. Trump for Speaker of the House.

— Congressman Troy E. Nehls (@RepTroyNehls) October 3, 2023
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Congressman Greg Stuebe added:  

.@realDonaldTrump for Speaker 🇺🇸

— Greg Steube (@gregsteube) October 3, 2023

Fox News host Sean Hannity claimed Republicans have begun working to draft Trump as the next Speaker. “I have been told that Trump might be open to helping the Republican party at least in the short term if necessary,” Hannity added. But could the former president and 2024 Republican front-runner, actually become House Speaker? Could Trump become House Speaker? First, let us understand that an individual does not need to be a member of Congress to become Speaker of the House. The Speaker is chosen by the party with the majority in the House – currently the Republicans. So, on that small matter, Trump easily clears the bar – though it must be noted that no Speaker of the House has been someone outside of Congress. However, a more serious problem for Trump is one of the rules set by the Republican party that states that no individual under felony indictment punishable by more than two years in prison can serve in a leadership role.

Trump, of course, is facing 91 felony charges in four different trials.

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He could be staring at literally hundreds of years in prison. So he is currently ineligible to be Speaker according to the Republican rules. However, let’s assume that the Republicans change their rules to make Trump eligible. Even given such a proposition, it is extremely likely that Trump would simply not want to be Speaker of the House. That’s because the position of House Speaker is arguably the most important – and difficult –  in all of Washington. First, you need to be well-versed in all sorts of arcane rules and procedure – never a strong point with Trump. Second, you also have the task of corralling your unruly and at times borderline hostile colleagues when it comes to coming together and staying thus on difficult votes – which some insiders have likened to herding cattle. McCarthy, remember, was elected to the Speakership earlier this year after 15 rounds of voting. [caption id=“attachment_13200132” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] There is no obvious successor to lead the House Republican majority now that McCarthy has opted not to run for the job again. AP[/caption] McCarthy had to make several compromises to the far-right wing – which left him labelled among the weakest Speakers in history – including one that stated that a single member could challenge his Speakership which ended up being his undoing. Trump is also currently preoccupied with simultaneously running for president and fending off a flood of legal challenges to his freedom – for which he needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars. Trump, seemingly recognising these hurdles, has claimed he simply wants to focus on retaking the White House. Experts agree that Trump’s candidacy for House Speaker is a no-go. Former Bush writer David Frum wrote:

Why Trump won't take the Speaker job in one Google search. pic.twitter.com/ZLHodw9zfL

— David Frum (@davidfrum) October 4, 2023
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NBC’s Jake Sherman wrote:

this will not happen. we can all move on from this. https://t.co/0MbKIFCK3h

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 4, 2023

Now, let’s take a brief look at some other contenders – all of whom would need to nab at least 218 votes in the House where the Republicans have a slim majority (222-212). Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan are the likely favourites for the House Speaker’s role. However, the two lawmakers could be joined by several other candidates including lesser-known names such as Elise Stefanik, Tom Cole, Kevin Hern, and Patrick McHenry in what could be a lengthy and messy battle to fill the post in the House. Republicans have set an 11 October vote to choose a successor and are due to meet the day before to hear from candidates. Steve Scalise Arguably the favourite to replace McCarthy is the number 2 Republican in the House – Steve Scalise. Scalise formally announced his candidacy in a letter to his colleagues on Wednesday. “We all need to come together and pull in the same direction to get the country back on the right track,” he wrote in a letter to Republicans. Scalise, who has been meeting privately with Republicans to build support for his bid, is viewed as more conservative than McCarthy by many of his brethren. Scalise, the House majority leader, has one big thing going for him – he isn’t McCarthy, who seemingly burned bridges with his far-right flank.

However, there are concerns about Scalise’s health.

The Congressman from Louisiana returned to the US Capitol in September following a blood cancer diagnosis. [caption id=“attachment_13208152” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US House Majority Leader Steve Scalise has long been considered the heir apparent to Kevin McCarthy. Reuters[/caption] Scalise, who is suffering from multiple myeloma, is currently undergoing chemotherapy. “It’s kind of a few months process. They don’t know yet how long it’s going to be — four months, six months — but they want to continue to evaluate and say, ‘OK, how’s he doing? How’s the treatment?’ The treatments are going well so far,” Scalise, who was taking precautions to protect his immune system and wore a face mask and stood back from reporters as he entered the Capitol building, said in September. The 57-year-old also said he would be able to receive some of the chemotherapy treatment in Washington and continue his work in Congress. However, he has limited his in-person interactions and was seen travelling the halls of the Capitol in a motorized wheelchair. This isn’t the first time Scalise has been hit by tragedy. He was among those wounded in 2017 when a gunman attacked lawmakers at a baseball practice in Alexandria, Virginia. The Congressman was shot in the hip and was hospitalized, and he underwent a painful rehabilitation. Despite concerns over Scalise’s health, he could get the backing of the far-right Republicans. Matt Gaetz, the far-right Republican from Florida who set the ball rolling for McCarthy’s exit with the vacate motion, told The New York Times he could throw his weight behind Scalise. However, Gaetz has not committed to backing Scalise. “There’s probably 100 Republicans in Congress that I would vote for speaker,” Gaetz told NBC earlier this week. “We have a lot of folks in Congress who I think would be very capable to serve as speaker.” Jim Jordan Representative Jim Jordan is another contender. The Congressman from Ohio and chair of the powerful House Judiciary committee is a Trump ally who first gained prominence in 2015 as a leader of the party’s right wing House Freedom Caucus – which famously pushed out then Speaker John Boehner.

Jordan, a Republican firebrand, is the chief of one of the three panels at the center of the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.

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Jordan has publicly sparred with Democrats over their investigations Trump as well as openly challenged state prosecutors who have filed criminal cases against the former president. The former college wrestler told reporters on Wednesday that he was in the running. In a letter to colleagues, he called for unifying the caucus, writing: “We can focus on the changes that improve the country and unite us in offering real solutions.” He was previously nominated by some Republican rebels to be the speaker during the election to the seat in January in which he received 20 votes during one round of voting.

He had also previously challenged McCarthy in a race for minority leader in 2018.

Jordan also shot subtly down the notion that Trump could be Speaker. “He’d be great, but actually, I want Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States,” Jordan said on Hannity’s Fox News show. “If he wants to be Speaker, great, but I want him to be President of the United States.” However, both Scalise and Jordan face significant challenges. Jordan is viewed by some moderates as being too far to the right, and by some hardliners as too close to McCarthy. [caption id=“attachment_13208202” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Jim Jordan gained fame in 2015 as leader of the House Freedom Caucus – which pushed out then Speaker John Boehner. Reuters[/caption] A moderate Republican, speaking to Axios on the condition of anonymity, described Jordan’s candidacy as a ‘non-starter’ for 15 to 20 other centrists. Scalise, meanwhile, is seen by McCarthy allies as having done nothing to help him during the leadership challenge and faces questions about his physical ability to do the job, according to one Republican lawmaker who spoke on condition of anonymity. Elise Stefanik Elise Stefanik is a Republican Congresswoman from New York. Serving on the House Intelligence Committee, the number 3 House Republican is a staunch ally of former president Trump. She has been repeatedly calling for investigations into Joe and Hunter Biden.

Her name has emerged as a possible vice-presidential pick on a Trump 2024 bid.

“I am proud to endorse Donald J. Trump for President in 2024,” she said in November. “It is time for Republicans to unite around the most popular Republican in America, who has a proven track record of conservative governance.” “It’s very clear President Trump is the leader of the Republican party,” Stefanik added. Stefanik launched her career as a more moderate conservative voice. [caption id=“attachment_13208232” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US Representative Tom Emmer and Representative Elise Stefanik are along the lesser names that might run for Speaker.[/caption] One of the youngest members of the House, she is seen as a rising star in Trump’s orbit. She has not tamped down talk of a potential vice-presidential nod. Stefanik and Trump remain close and work together, according to a person familiar with the situation and granted anonymity to discuss it. She helped raise money and backing for several newly elected members of Congress. Tom Emmer Representative Tom Emmer is the Republican House whip. The Minnesota lawmaker headed the House Republicans’ campaign arm during the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans recaptured the House majority from Biden’s Democrats. He has backed Scalise for the post, but multiple lawmakers have said they could consider him as a candidate for the job. Tom Cole Tom Cole is a Republican veteran who holds a powerful position as chair of the House Rules Committee. Though he has not said he was interested in the job, the Oklahoma lawmaker could garner support from Republicans seeking an alternative to the hard-right. Kevin Hern Kevin Hern is chairman of the Republican Study Committee, a group of conservative Republicans. He has told reporters that several lawmakers have approached him to consider running and has suggested that he would be open to it.

“I think we need to be pointing our guns outward, not at each other,” Hern told reporters.

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”I’m doing what I’ve always been doing. I’ve had a lot of conversations about leadership. So I’m going to go listen to the Texas delegation,” Hern told CNN. However, the lawmaker from Oklahoma could have trouble attracting support from moderates. Patrick McHenry Representative Patrick McHenry was named to step in as speaker pro tempore following McCarthy’s ouster. Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, McHenry is a McCarthy ally who spoke in support of McCarthy prior to the ouster vote. McHenry, a lawmaker from North Carolina, has said he does not want the job, but supporters may push him toward it if other candidates lose support. ‘Everybody just taking a breath’ Rank and file Republicans said they were weighing their options. “Everybody’s just taking a breath and in listening mode, without any serious commitments,” said Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw.

The speaker’s job has proven difficult for Republicans in recent years.

The last Republican speaker, Paul Ryan, retired from Congress after struggling to work with Trump, a fellow Republican. His predecessor John Boehner left after clashes with the party’s right wing. Some Republicans said they needed to change the chamber’s rules to make it more difficult to remove a speaker. McCarthy agreed to lower that threshold to allow any one member to challenge his leadership bid as a condition of winning support for the job in January, setting the stage for Representative Matt Gaetz to do just that. “Whoever is going to get my vote for speaker is going to have to explain to me how what happened yesterday never happens again,” said Republican Representative Kelly Armstrong. McCarthy, who led a narrow 221-212 majority, relied on Democratic votes to pass a stopgap spending bill on Saturday to avert a government shutdown, which angered Gaetz and other hard-right Republicans. The entire House - Republicans and Democrats - vote for speaker, who would hold the position until early January 2025, unless they were deposed as well. Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is expected to run against any Republican candidate nominated by the party conference, as he did in January. With inputs from agencies

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Donald Trump ConnectTheDots Elise Stefanik Kevin McCarthy Steve Scalise jim jordan
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