Camp David Summit: What you need to know about US, S Korea and Japan meet

The United States, Japan and South Korea are set to hold a summit tomorrow at Camp David. US president Joe Biden will play host at the famous presidential retreat to Japan’s Fumio Kishida and South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol as the US allies look to continue to improve relations. The summit – the first standalone meeting between the US and its two allies – comes after Kishida and Yoon in March held their countries’ first bilateral summit after a gap of 12 years. The two nations took steps to ease tensions after years of disputes including some related to Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of Korea. The summit also occurs in the backdrop of shared concerns among all three nations about China and North Korea. Let’s take a closer look: What do we know? According to Axios, the countries are expected to announce joint military exercises, a new crisis hotline, and an agreement to consult each other in trying times. “The symbolism of meeting at Camp David cannot be overstated,” a senior administration official told the website.

“There is no question because of their rapprochement, we are able to do way more.”

VOA quoted experts as saying the nations would likely form an “enduring tripartite security agreement” to defend the Indo-Pacific. Biden, Yoon and Kishida are likely to declare plans to meet regularly and cooperate on security with an eye on China. Evans Revere, who served in the George W Bush administration as acting assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs told VOA,  “The statement will make clear that North Korea is not the only concern that has brought them together for this unprecedented trilateral gathering at Camp David.” “While Pyongyang may be the most urgent threat, the PRC [China] is undoubtedly the biggest strategic challenge facing Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul over the long term,” he said. “The agreements reached at this historic summit will move the three countries closer to a permanent partnership that focuses on intelligence and information sharing, missile defense, joint military exercises, cybersecurity, early warning cooperation, and enhanced nuclear deterrence,” said Revere. Senior officials told Reuters the countries would launch a series of joint initiatives on technology and defence. While the summit is unlikely to produce a formal security arrangement, they will agree to mutual understanding about regional responsibilities, they added. It will mark the first in what US officials hope will be an annual gathering between the three country’s leaders, formalizing their ties and cooperation. [caption id=“attachment_12626182” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Fumio Kishida and Yoon Suk Yeol in March held their first bilateral meet in over a decade.[/caption] Washington has formal collective defence arrangements in place with both Tokyo and Seoul separately, but it wants those two countries to work closer together given growing concerns about China’s mounting power and worries about its intentions. We are anticipating some steps that will bring us closer together in the security realm,” said one of the US officials, and that doing so would “add to our collective security.” White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said on Wednesday said the US relationship with Japan and South Korea would be a “defining trilateral relationship for the 21st Century.” What you will see on Friday is a very ambitious set of initiatives that seek to lock in trilateral engagement, both now and in the future," Campbell told a Brookings Institution event. Campbell said plans would be announced to make it an annual event and also to invest in technology for a three-way crisis hotline. Eye on China The summit is also expected to lead to a joint statement between the countries that includes some language speaking to concerns about China’s desire to change the status of self-governed Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. The US, Japanese and South Korean joint statement is set to include language on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, one of the officials said.

The exact language on that and other provisions is expected to be negotiated up to the last minute.

Daniel Russel, who served as the assistant US secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs under Barack Obama, told VOA, “The three countries’ national security and defence strategies are already closely aligned.” “All three leaders are deeply concerned by the risks posed by increasingly assertive Chinese military behaviour and are sure to discuss practical ways to bolster deterrence and reduce the risk of an incident.” But the language currently under consideration would be consistent with prior US positions on the subject, avoiding a sharp escalation in rhetoric with Beijing as Washington has been seeking to ease tensions ahead of possible talks between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year. China, meanwhile, is watching closely. The SCMP quoted foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin as saying that Beijing remains opposed to “the cobbling together of various small circles by the countries concerned”. “[China] also opposes practices that exacerbate confrontation and jeopardise the strategic security of other countries,” Wang added. “The countries concerned should follow the trend of the times and do more that is conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity.” Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told VOA, “China has noticed that exclusionary groupings are being assembled for the so-called ‘regional security,’ only to intensify antagonism and undermine the strategic security of other countries." “China firmly opposes such practices,” Liu added. What do experts say? Experts say to expect some sort of response from Beijing and Pyongyang. As a piece in The Interpreter noted, “China and North Korea aren’t sitting still. They see their adversaries bolstering their defences and institutionalising a military relationship with each other, and they have no intention of sitting back without countermeasures.” The piece said that cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan would likely see China, North Korea and Russia draw closer. [caption id=“attachment_12984482” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] China is keeping a close eye on the summit.[/caption] “Chinese and Russian military forces have already enhanced joint exercises in the air and at sea. Last month, Russian and Chinese bombers flew together over the Sea of Japan, which prompted Tokyo to scramble fighter aircraft. Their respective navies exercised in the Sea of Japan as well. The message to Washington and its allies is clear: if you want a confrontation between blocs, then that’s precisely what you will get,” the piece stated. Lu Chao, dean, Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University in northeastern China, told SCMP, “The [likely] mechanism of regular meetings among heads of state and the fixed mechanism of cooperation in the military aspect amount to the de facto formation of a three-way military alliance.”

“China is on high alert for the summit, especially if the Taiwan issue is to be mentioned,” Lu added.

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“If they raise the Taiwan issue publicly at the summit, it would be seen as a strong provocation to China and will be a dangerous move for stability in the Asia-Pacific.” ‘Bridge too far’ However, some have downplayed the possible achievable outcomes. SCMP quoted Liu Jiangyong, an expert on regional affairs at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, as saying, “The three countries do not have the security commitments that NATO countries have with each other, and Japan and South Korea are security partners, not allies. He noted that the three countries have varied strategic goals. “The US may consider [its goals] from a global perspective, while Japan is largely targeting China … South Korea, meanwhile, is trying to strengthen security cooperation with the US and Japan to build a greater military deterrent against North Korea.” However, he added that “joint military exercises and trilateral consultations against China” would continue.

Campbell, meanwhile, has acknowledged domestic political constraints in the three nations.

He said agreements reached at the summit would be “a substantial step forward in recognizing the common security picture that each of the countries are facing” and recognising that “it will require common actions.” “I think we can imagine a future with more ambition, but … the key is not to get too far over your skis, to take this a step at a time to build appropriately to not get beyond the domestic context of which we’re dealing.” Campbell said the aim of the summit was to “try to embed this in our politics in such a way that it will be hard for any leader in either of the three countries” to back out of. “It’s too much to ask - it’s a bridge too far - to fully expect a three-way security framework among each of us. However, we are taking steps whereby each of the countries understand responsibilities with respect to regional security, and we are advancing new areas of coordination and ballistic missile defence, again technology, that will be perceived as very substantial," another official said. Christopher Johnstone, a former Biden White House official now with Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said the US administration was seeking to take advantage of the Tokyo-Seoul rapprochement to “institutionalise” some of the progress and make it more difficult for future leaders to reverse. However, Johnstone told a briefing previewing the summit that progress remained fragile. “In South Korea, President Yoon’s efforts are still not widely popular. And in Japan there’s this constant refrain of skepticism that the improvement will be durable and that … a future (South Korean) president could flip the table over again,” he said. Johnstone said he expected a summit statement recognizing that the security of the three countries is linked, “and that some measure of threat to one is a threat to all,” even if this would fall short of NATO’s Article 5 language, that sees an attack on one as an attack on all. He expected this to be complemented with new defence initiatives, including a deepening of joint military exercises and missile defence cooperation. With inputs from agencies