 "Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro flashes a thumbs up while standing at the entrance of his home where he is under house arrest in Brasilia, Brazil, Thursday, September 11, 2025. File Image/AP")
Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro was handed a 27-year and three-month prison sentence on Thursday after being found guilty of orchestrating a coup attempt to cling to power following his 2022 election defeat.
This landmark ruling, delivered by a special panel of the Supreme Federal Court, marks the first time in Brazil’s modern history that a former head of state has been convicted for actively seeking to dismantle the country’s democratic order.
Bolsonaro’s conviction has divided the Latin American country prompting jubilant celebrations among his critics, and fierce condemnation by his supporters and allies, including United States President Donald Trump.
What were the charges against Bolsonaro?
The Supreme Court convened a five-judge panel to consider the charges against Bolsonaro, who was accused of a series of actions aimed at overturning the outcome of the 2022 election, which he narrowly lost to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
After extensive deliberations, four of the five justices voted to convict, concluding that Bolsonaro had actively plotted to subvert the will of voters and install himself as leader through unconstitutional means.
Justice Luiz Fux issued the lone dissenting vote, siding with Bolsonaro’s defence team and arguing that the court lacked jurisdiction over the case.
Fux asserted that the defence had been unable to fully examine the immense volume of evidence — reportedly 70 terabytes of documents — compiled during the investigation.
The majority decision found Bolsonaro guilty of five serious crimes:
Participation in an armed criminal organisation
Attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law
Organising a coup d’état
Damage caused by violence
Deterioration of protected cultural heritage
Justice Carmen Lucia, in her remarks, spoke about the broader implications of the trial, stating, “This criminal case is almost a meeting between Brazil and its past, its present and its future,” referring to the nation’s turbulent history of military rule and repeated assaults on democratic governance.
According to the ruling, Bolsonaro will remain under house arrest during the appeals process. However, if the conviction stands, he would not be placed in a standard prison facility.
Instead, as a former head of state, he would serve his sentence under special conditions, most likely in a secure section of the Federal Police’s headquarters in Brasília.
Did Bolsonaro plan to assassinate Lula?
The prosecution argued that Bolsonaro, a former army captain, began laying the groundwork for a coup well before the 2022 elections.
Evidence presented by federal investigators and the attorney general detailed a multi-pronged effort by Bolsonaro and his closest allies to invalidate the election results and retain power at any cost.
According to Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case, Bolsonaro carried out a “series of coordinated actions” between 2021 and January 8, 2023, with the clear objective of toppling Brazil’s democratic institutions.
These actions included:
Spreading unverified claims about Brazil’s electronic voting system to erode public trust in the electoral process.
Drafting an emergency decree that would have nullified the election results and given Bolsonaro temporary authority while investigations into fabricated claims of voter fraud were conducted.
Encouraging mass demonstrations that culminated in the violent January 8, 2023 riots, where thousands of his supporters stormed the presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court buildings in Brasília.
Investigators also uncovered evidence of a more sinister aspect of the coup plot: plans to assassinate Lula, his vice president, and Moraes himself.
These plots, according to testimony and intelligence gathered by the federal police, were ultimately abandoned because Bolsonaro was only able to secure the support of the navy commander, while the chiefs of the air force and the army refused to participate.
The lack of unified military backing forced Bolsonaro and his allies to pursue alternative strategies, including the January 8 uprising.
What happened during the January 8 riots?
The events of January 8, 2023, were the clearest manifestation of Bolsonaro’s campaign to undermine Brazil’s democracy.
Just one week after Lula’s inauguration, mobs of Bolsonaro supporters breached security barriers and ransacked key government buildings.
The attacks were widely compared to the January 6, 2021 assault on the US Capitol, with both incidents fuelled by baseless claims of electoral fraud and calls for military intervention.
In Brasília, rioters destroyed priceless cultural artifacts and government property, hoping to provoke chaos that would justify a military takeover.
The Supreme Court’s verdict also extended to seven members of Bolsonaro’s administration, including five senior military officers.
This marked the first time since Brazil became a republic nearly 140 years ago that high-ranking military figures were punished for attempting to overthrow civilian rule.
What was Bolsonaro’s defence?
Bolsonaro and his legal team have consistently denied the allegations, framing the trial as a politically motivated attack designed to neutralise him ahead of future elections.
His lawyers issued a statement condemning the outcome, describing the prison term as “absurdly excessive” and pledging to file appeals against both the conviction and the sentence.
They have five days to submit motions for clarification once the full ruling is published, which could take up to 60 days.
While Bolsonaro’s defence intends to appeal to the full 11-member Supreme Court, legal experts note that such a move is unlikely to succeed.
According to the court’s procedures, at least two dissenting votes are required to escalate a case to the full bench. In this instance, only Fux opposed the conviction.
Rafael Mafei, a lawyer and law professor at the University of São Paulo, commented on the uphill battle Bolsonaro faces.
“It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that there will be appeals to the full Supreme Court,” he told AP. “But of course, the defenses will try, because they should.”
What does this mean for Bolsonaro’s future?
Even before this week’s conviction, Bolsonaro was already barred from holding public office until 2030 due to earlier rulings by Brazil’s electoral court.
These rulings stemmed from his attacks on the electronic voting system and misuse of presidential powers during the 2022 campaign.
However, Bolsonaro remains a towering figure in Brazilian politics. His Liberal Party (PL) holds substantial influence in Congress and continues to command loyalty from millions of voters.
Many of his supporters belong to the so-called “bible, beef, and bullets” coalition — a term used to describe evangelical Christians, agribusiness interests, and gun rights advocates.
Following his conviction, there is growing pressure within the party for Bolsonaro to choose a political heir who could run in his place against Lula in 2026.
At the same time, lawmakers aligned with Bolsonaro are expected to push for an amnesty bill in Congress that would absolve him and others involved in the January 8 riots.
While Brazil’s Supreme Court has already declared such amnesty proposals unconstitutional, the possibility of a legislative-executive clash looms large. If Congress were to pass the bill, it would likely trigger another major judicial confrontation.
How did Trump & Co react?
Bolsonaro’s legal troubles have reverberated beyond Brazil’s borders, especially in Washington. US President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of Bolsonaro, has repeatedly denounced the prosecution as unjust.
Speaking shortly after the verdict, Trump described the ruling as “a terrible thing” and added, “I think it’s very bad for Brazil.” Earlier in the year, he had accused Brazil’s judiciary of engaging in a “witch hunt” against his ally.
The Trump administration has taken several measures largely in response to Bolsonaro’s prosecution:
Imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Brazilian exports to the United States in July, though exemptions were made for key goods such as orange juice, natural resources, and aircraft.
Enacting sanctions against Moraes and other Supreme Court members.
Revoking visas for most of Brazil’s top judicial officials.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s criticisms, writing on X that the Supreme Court had “unjustly ruled” against Bolsonaro and warning that the United States would respond accordingly.
Brazil’s Foreign Ministry condemned Rubio’s comments as a threat to national sovereignty. In a statement, the ministry declared that Brazil’s democracy would not be intimidated by foreign interference and defended the integrity of its judicial system.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son and a congressman, has been actively lobbying US officials on his father’s behalf.
Currently residing in the United States, he told Reuters that he expected further sanctions to be imposed on Brazil and its judiciary in the wake of the ruling.
Will this sentencing backfire and boost Bolsonaro’s populist movement?
Bolsonaro’s rise to power was deeply intertwined with Brazil’s complicated relationship with its military past.
While neighbouring countries such as Argentina, Guatemala, and Uruguay established truth commissions to investigate abuses committed during their periods of military rule, Brazil never fully confronted the legacy of its 1964-1985 dictatorship.
Throughout his career, Bolsonaro frequently praised the military regime, presenting it as a bulwark against communism and a defender of conservative values.
This rhetoric resonated with a segment of the population that saw the dictatorship as having saved Brazil from leftist radicalism.
During his presidency, Bolsonaro maintained close ties to the armed forces and often romanticised authoritarian rule.
Bolsonaro’s conviction has not diminished the fervour of his supporters. On Brazil’s Independence Day, just days before the verdict, massive demonstrations took place across the country.
Tens of thousands of Bolsonaristas filled city streets, waving Brazilian and American flags while calling for foreign intervention — particularly by Trump.
Many protesters openly demanded that the US government intervene to defend Bolsonaro.
While Bolsonaro’s conviction marks a historic moment, it is unlikely to bring closure to Brazil’s political turmoil. His narrow loss to Lula in the 2022 runoff — by less than two percentage points — revealed a deeply divided electorate.
With Lula set to seek re-election in 2026, Bolsonaro’s family members and senior allies are already vying to emerge as the standard-bearer for Brazil’s right-wing forces.
The ruling has also emboldened Bolsonaro’s base, which views him as a martyr of the anti-establishment cause.
The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro represents a watershed moment for Brazil.
With inputs from agencies