Bihar caste survey: Why Nitish Kumar has only to gain from the census

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is all set to hold an all-party meeting today (3 October) to deliberate on the findings of the caste survey. His government revealed the results of the census a day back on Gandhi Jayanti, stirring the political pot at the state and national level. Nitish Kumar said the government will also present the economic data of the surveyed families to the representatives of the nine political parties at the huddle. On whether his government will take steps to revise caste quota percentages proportional to the population, the Bihar chief minister, as per NDTV, said: “It would not be proper for me to go into such details right now. Let me share the findings with all parties… After that, our focus will be on making policies targeted at castes that may be deemed to be in need of greater assistance. I must add, the survey will benefit all castes, without exception.” The last caste census was carried out in 1931 in the then-undivided India. Let’s try to explain the findings of the latest caste survey in Bihar and how it might benefit CM Nitish Kumar. Bihar caste survey According to the census, the total population in Bihar is 13.07 crore. The Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) together account for 63.13 per cent of the state’s population. The data shared by Development Commissioner Vivek Singh also showed that EBCs make up 36.01 per cent of the populace, followed by OBCs at 27.13 per cent. Among the OBC castes, Yadavs – the core vote base of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – account for 14.26 per cent. The Scheduled Castes or Dalits constitute 19.65 per cent of the population, while Scheduled Tribes (STs) stand at 1.68 per cent. [caption id=“attachment_13199052” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Graphic: Praveen Saini[/caption] The population of general or “upper” caste groups is at 15.52 per cent. While Hindus make up 81.99 per cent of Bihar’s total population, Muslims are at 17.70 per cent. How Nitish Kumar can benefit from the survey Many believe the caste survey has given an edge to Nitish Kumar over other political parties, including the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The caste census put Kumar back in the spotlight amid recent reports of his alleged strained ties with the INDIA bloc. According to Indian Express, the results will help bolster Nitish’s position as a “champion” of the EBCs, which account for the largest vote bank with about 36 per cent population. Once considered strong supporters of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, the EBCs started backing Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar by 2005, as per The Hindu report. Nitish has also wooed the EBCs through various measures, including reservations, education and welfare benefits, during his multiple tenures as the CM. The JD(U)’s strength has been on the decline since 2015. “While Nitish Kumar’s political importance in the state is on the wane, he continues to command anywhere between 5-7 per cent votes entirely on his own. Whichever way he swings could significantly benefit that alliance. He will naturally claim credit for the caste survey and it may even shore up his importance. But these polls are not going to be fought on just the caste survey. Price rise and unemployment are the issues,” an RJD leader told Indian Express. During the 2014 general elections, the EBCs threw their weight behind the BJP. However, with the Mahagathbandhan coalition – JD(U), Congress, RJD and Left parties – contesting elections unitedly, the saffron party may find it hard to attract EBC votes, reported The Hindu. Besides the EBCs, political parties in Bihar cannot afford to “ignore” the OBCs and Mahadalits ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, noted Indian Express. Nitish’s caste Kurmis, who are part of the OBCs, comprise 2.87 per cent of the population, the survey has found. The JD(U) supremo, who introduced the term Mahadalits in 2007, also relies on this grouping of the 21 poorest social groups within the Scheduled Castes for votes. The Bihar chief minister is likely to give more attention to this segment now. Late Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) also significantly depend on the Dalit vote base, as per News18. The JD(U)’s other core constituency of the Koeri group (Luv and Kush) accounts for 4.21 per cent of the population. Moreover, the Bihar caste census is expected to provide a leg up to Nitish within the INDIA bloc. A senior JD(U) leader told Indian Express that the Bihar CM had said at the Opposition grouping’s Patna meeting in June that caste census should be made one of the key agendas of the alliance. He also pressed on the INDIA bloc to promise to conduct a caste census if it wins the 2024 general elections. But Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) had raised qualms at the time. [caption id=“attachment_13197592” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The Bihar caste survey could provide leverage to Nitish Kumar in the INDIA bloc. PTI File Photo[/caption] Nitish, whose national ambitions are well-known, may have greater leverage now in the INDIA grouping. Notably, insiders told News18 that the RJD has been goading the JD(U) leader to pursue a “larger” national role. ALSO READ: What did the Bihar caste survey reveal? Reactions to the Bihar caste survey Some INDIA bloc parties, such as the RJD and Congress, are already calling for a nationwide caste census. RJD chief Lalu Prasad said the Bihar case survey sets the tone for “a nationwide caste census which will be undertaken when we form the next government at the Centre”, reported NDTV.  “Out of 90 secretaries of the central government, only three are OBCs, who handle only 5 per cent of India’s budget. Therefore, it is important to know the caste statistics of India,” said Congress’ Rahul Gandhi. INDIA bloc parties are also calling for caste census in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accused the Opposition of “trying to divide the country in the name of caste”, comparing any such attempt to “divide people” to a “sin”. With inputs from agencies