Biden-Xi to meet at APEC summit: How the South China Sea and Taiwan tensions remain

US president Joe Biden’s upcoming meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping is expected to be the most important and consequential bilateral encounter this year. The South China Sea and Taiwan threats, meanwhile, continue to hover over the summit. The course of events in the year since the two leaders’ previous meeting gives cautious hope that they will have greater luck this time. But it also shows how easily any agreement they reach could once again veer off course. The US and Chinese presidents will meet in San Francisco on Wednesday as part of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit . They arrive at the summit after five months of government-to-government negotiations, which have recently quickened and expanded to cultural and economic exchanges. In contrast, the November 2022 conference in Bali, Indonesia, occurred after China suspended discussions in protest over then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. “This rests on a stronger foundation than the Bali meeting did,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “Substantively and contextually this meeting is taking place in a moderately better environment.” But tensions over Taiwan and flare-ups between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are a sobering reminder that an unexpected incident could set back efforts to improve ties, just as an apparently errant Chinese balloon did early this year. Talk also only goes so far with the two governments fundamentally at odds over technology, defence, trade and Taiwan. Last month, the Biden administration expanded restrictions on technology exports to China. Recent experience has shown that more frequent communication “does not exclude the continued expansion and escalation of America’s preparations for war and high-tech deterrence against China, nor does it exclude China’s corresponding countermeasures, protests and preparations,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China, Rather than achieving major breakthroughs, the hope is that the leaders will set the tone for meaningful dialogue on a range of issues in the coming months, Blanchette said. “The more probable reality is it’s going to be a little bit of that but we have a lot of speed bumps that can trip up the two at any point.” One year in US-China relations. November 2022 14 November: Biden meets Xi for three hours during the Group of 20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in his first in-person meeting with the Chinese leader since becoming president. December 6 December: The Biden administration approves the sale of more than $425 million (Rs 3,537 crore) of spare aircraft parts for Taiwan’s F-16 fighters, C-130 transport planes and other US-supplied weapons systems. January 2023 18 January: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets Vice Premier Liu He in Zurich. It is the highest-ranking contact between the two countries since the Biden-Xi meeting in Bali. February 2 February: US-China ties are upended by reports that a Chinese surveillance balloon is flying over the United States. Secretary of State Antony Blinken calls off a planned trip to China. [caption id=“attachment_13385072” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A US Air Force U-2 pilot looks down at a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon as it hovers over the United States. AP[/caption] 18 February: Blinken tells Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, at a meeting in Munich that China must never send a surveillance balloon over the US again. Wang criticises the US for shooting it down. 21 February: A US congressional delegation affirms America’s commitment to democracy and freedom in a meeting in Taiwan with President Tsai Ing-wen. March 1 March: The US approves the sale of $619 million (Rs 5,152 crore) of missiles, launchers and other munitions for Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets. May 10-11 May: Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, tells Wang at talks in Vienna that the US wants to move beyond the balloon incident. 26 May: A Chinese fighter jet flies in front of a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea in what the US military calls an “unnecessarily aggressive manoeuvre.” [caption id=“attachment_13385042” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Tensions over Taiwan and flare-ups between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are a sobering reminder that an unexpected incident could set back efforts to improve ties, just as an apparently errant Chinese balloon did early this year. AP[/caption] June 2-4 June: China’s defence minister Li Shangfu turns down a meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-La defence dialogue in Singapore. On 3 June, a Chinese navy ship cuts across the path of an American destroyer in the Taiwan Strait. 18-19 June: Blinken meets Xi and Wang in Beijing in what will become the first of four US Cabinet-level officials to visit over two months. July 8 July: Yellen travels to Beijing to meet officials including Vice Premier He Lifeng, who has taken over the economic portfolio from now former Vice Premier Liu He. 19 July: Chinese vice president Han Zheng tells visiting US climate envoy John Kerry that China is willing to work with the US on reducing global warming as long as its political demands are met. August 23 August: The Biden administration approves the sale to Taiwan of $500 million (Rs 4,162 crore) in infrared search tracking systems and related equipment for F-16 fighters. 28-29 August: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, meeting senior officials in Beijing, rebuffs their appeals to reduce US controls on technology exports to China. September 9 September: Biden has a brief exchange with Chinese premier Li Qiang while both are at the Group of 20 summit in India. 11 September: A Chinese naval formation led by the aircraft carrier Shandong sails about 70 miles (110 kilometres) southeast of Taiwan to conduct drills simulating air, submarine, sea and land attacks. 16-17 September: Sullivan and Wang hold 12 hours of talks in Malta. 17 September: China’s military sends 103 aircraft toward Taiwan in a 24-hour period, an unusually high number. Chinese warplanes fly toward the island and back on almost a daily basis. 18 September: Chinese vice president Han Zheng hold talks with Blinken during the UN General Assembly in New York. 22 September: The US Treasury Department and China’s Ministry of Finance launch working groups to discuss economic and financial issues. October 9 October: Xi meets US Senate delegation led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. It’s the first congressional delegation to visit China in four years. 17 October: The US broadens its export controls to stop China from acquiring advanced computer chips and the equipment to manufacture them.   [caption id=“attachment_13385062” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Last month, the Biden administration expanded restrictions on technology exports to China. AP[/caption] 18 October: Russian president Vladimir Putin meets Xi in Beijing on a rare trip abroad to attend China’s Belt and Road Forum. China and the US are divided over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 22 October: Chinese ships collide with two Philippine ships delivering supplies to troops in the South China Sea, prompting a warning from the US that it would defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack 24 October: A Chinese fighter jet flies within 10 feet (3 metres) of an American B-52 bomber flying over the South China Sea in a nighttime intercept. Separately, China announces the dismissal of Defence Minister Li Shangfu with no explanation why. 25 October: Xi has a surprise meeting with California governor Gavin Newsom, who is on a weeklong visit to China to deepen cooperation on climate. 27 October: Wang meets Biden in Washington, DC, as well as Sullivan and Blinken as two sides hammer out details for a Biden-Xi summit. Wang meets Biden, Sullivan and Blinken in Washington, DC. 30 October: The US sends the Pentagon’s top China official to China’s annual Xiangshan forum on security. China’s vice president Han Zheng meets two American veterans who were part of the Flying Tigers command that helped defend China against Japan in World War II. November 2 November: US farm industry groups hold forum in Beijing to strengthen agricultural trade. American Ballet Theatre opens its first tour to China in a decade. 4-7 November: Climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua meet in California ahead of a UN climate change conference that starts on 30 November in Dubai. 6 November: The US and China hold arms control talks in Washington. The US has expressed concern about China’s growing nuclear arsenal. 9 November: The Chinese and US militaries discuss via video link the search for the remains of American prisoners of war and missing personnel. 9-10 November: Vice Premier He Lifeng travels to San Francisco to meet Yellen, who says the talks helped lay the groundwork for a productive Biden-Xi summit. 10 November: Members of the Philadelphia Orchestra perform in Beijing to mark 50th anniversary of its historic 1973 visit. 15 November: Xi and Biden holding summit during Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco. With inputs from AP