West Asia on edge: How could Israel respond to Iran's missile attack?

Iran’s missile attack on Israel has stoked fears of a wider conflict in West Asia. Tehran fired roughly 200 ballistic missiles in an unprecedented assault on Israel on Tuesday (October 1) night, taking the region closer to a full-scale war.

Israel, which largely intercepted the missiles with the help of its allies, has vowed retaliation against Iran. Tehran has also promised to strike back if Israel attacks.

What could Israel’s retaliation against Iran look like? We explain.

Iran attacks Israel

Alarms sounded in Israel on Tuesday as Iran fired “approximately 180 projectiles” according to the Israeli military.

United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Iran had launched “nearly 200 ballistic missiles” towards Israel.

Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and US destroyers.

Shrapnel near the city of Jericho in the West Bank from fragments of an intercepted missile killed a Palestinian, Politico reported citing Israeli authorities. Two people were slightly wounded by shrapnel in Tel Aviv.

Unconfirmed Israeli media reports said that some rockets that were not intercepted hit properties in Tel Sheva, Dimona, Nabatim, Hora, Hod Hasharon, Be’er Sheva and Rishon Lezion, as per Politico.

Daniel Hagari, an IDF spokesperson, said some missiles landed in central and southern Israel.

Iran said it launched a barrage of missiles against Israel in response to the assassination of the Lebanese group Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut last week, and the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

It also said the attack was a response to Israel’s deadly strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iran’s attack was expected, with Israel asking people to stay near shelters or other protected areas. Earlier on Tuesday, the US had warned of Iran’s plan to launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel soon.

Reaction to Iran’s attack

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake” and will “pay for it”. “Those who attack us; we attack them,” he said in a televised address after the attack.

The US affirmed its “ironclad” support for Israel, with President Joe Biden saying that his country was “fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel”.

Condemning “the broadening of the Middle East (West Asia) conflict with escalation after escalation”, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote on X, “This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire.”

What will Israel do next?

Iran’s attack on Israel has come at a time when the IDF has invaded Lebanon, which it claims as “limited, localised and targeted” raids against Hezbollah. Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza is also nearing a year.

Now, Tehran’s ballistic missile attack has once again raised fears of West Asia being plunged into a regional war. Israeli military spokesperson Hagari has said Israel is “fully prepared to defend and retaliate” against Iranian attack.

He insisted Israel’s response would be at “the time and place of our choosing.”

IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi has promised to retaliate in a way that would shock Tehran. “We will choose when to exact the price, and prove our precise and surprising attack capabilities, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon,” he was quoted as saying by Politico.

Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon denounced Iran’s attack and said, “Let me be very clear. We will defend our people. We will act. Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions. The response will be painful”.

Iran’s IRGC has threatened Tehran’s response would be “more crushing and ruinous” if Israel struck back. “If the Zionist regime responds to Iran’s operations, it will face devastating attacks,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement.

Israel’s reprisal is imminent but it is the scale of the attack that is unknown.

Israel’s current strategy is to eliminate its enemies and then deploy deterrence, reported BBC. Former Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed told the British broadcaster that Iran’s attack “is poised to provoke a significant Israeli counterstrike… We will likely see a significant and immediate response from Israel against Iranian targets.”

According to The Guardian, Iran’s missiles targeting Israeli cities would be “critical” to its response.

Israel’s attack on Iran could hit military or economic targets. When Iran attacked Israel in April, the latter’s response was measured. Israel had launched a strike against air defences protecting a military base near the city of Isfahan.

This time, Israel’s response is likely to be far more crucial for the entire region and beyond. As per BBC, Israel would already have plans to attack Iran chalked out, with its defence chiefs now deciding when and where to strike.

The obvious military targets could be the land bases from where Tuesday’s barrage of missiles were launched. If Israel wants to escalate tensions further, it could go after Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel can target Iran economically by hitting its oil production. Oil prices have climbed after fears of an escalation of tensions in West Asia.

Israel could also target those who ordered Tuesday’s strikes, reported BBC. 

Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at the US-based think tank DAWN, told Al Jazeera that West Asia was now in “a full-scale regional war” that would not stop until a change in American policy. “This will not stop without the United States putting its foot down and saying, ‘We will not send more weapons to Israel. We will not fund and aid Israeli crimes,’” he said.

Speaking to CNN, former US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said that Iran “does not want a wider war” with Israel. “I think at this point they’ve realised they certainly can’t win it,” he said.

Referring to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Esper said, “I don’t know what Iran has left to respond with. Their proxy groups have been decimated.”

Israel’s attack will determine whether there will be a cascading effect, leading to a wider conflict in West Asia.

“It could go either way. At every exchange, the actors – Iran and Israel – have options to escalate or de-escalate. There is no predetermined path that they must choose,” Shaan Shaikh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA.

With inputs from agencies