Is Bangladesh inching closer to Pakistan? Should India be concerned?

A lot is brewing in India’s backyard, which could have a great impact on the geopolitics of the region. It appears that as Bangladesh moves further away from India, it is cosying up to Pakistan.

From visa waivers to defence deals and restoring sea routes, Dhaka under the Muhammad Yunus-led government is moving closer to Islamabad, a move that could imperil India’s security.

What are we talking about? We explain in detail.

Dhaka’s visa thaw with Islamabad

The Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in Dhaka has sent a message to all missions abroad instructing them to facilitate visas for Pakistani citizens and those of Pakistani origin. This comes as the interim government removed the requirement for Pakistani citizens to obtain a security clearance before applying for a Bangladeshi visa.

It was in 2019, under Sheikh Hasina, that Bangladesh mandated that all Pakistanis who wished to travel there had to obtain a ‘no objection’ clearance from Bangladesh’s Security Services Division. However, this will no longer be required.

Mubashar Hasan, an expert on Bangladeshi politics and executive director of the Sydney Policy and Analysis Centre in Australia, told ThePrint, “It seems by normalising relationships with India’s arch-rival Pakistan, Bangladesh’s administration is signalling that it is not going to see South Asian politics through an Indian prism anymore. Whether in the long run, Bangladesh can continue to afford that remains to be seen as the West — specifically the US — sees South Asia through an Indian prism and the US is a vital ally for Bangladesh. Having said that, India, too, must realise its neighbourhood policy is in shambles.”

Earlier in September, Islamabad too announced that Bangladeshis would be able to travel to the neighbouring country without incurring any visa fees. Moreover, the two countries also announced the resumption of direct flights — the last direct flight between the two countries was operated by Pakistan International Airlines ( PIA ) in 2018.

Bangladesh-Pakistan direct sea route

The change in visa rules isn’t the only sign of a thaw between the two nations. Earlier in November, a Pakistani freight ship from Karachi docked at Bangladesh ’s southeastern Chittagong port, marking the re-establishment of direct maritime links between the two countries after 47 years.

Pakistan’s envoy to Dhaka, Syed Ahmed Maroof, speaking on the occasion said that it was “a major step” in boosting trade across the region. Moreover, the route will “promote new opportunities for businesses on both sides”.

And that’s not all. In September, Bangladesh also lifted imported restrictions on Pakistani goods. Earlier, all goods coming from Pakistan had to be offloaded onto other vessels — mostly belonging to Sri Lanka or Malaysia — before it came to Bangladesh. These vessels also required a mandatory physical check from Bangladeshi authorities.

Arms trade

In August, just three weeks after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, Dhaka placed an order for a fresh supply of artillery ammunition from Pakistan. Sources in the Indian government told The Tribune that Bangladesh’s interim government had called for 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, 2,000 tank ammunition units, 40 tons of RDX explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles.

The sources said that while this wasn’t the first such order of ammunition, the numbers were far greater than usual. For instance, in 2023, Dhaka had placed an order of 12,000 rounds of ammunition.

Addressing the ‘question of 1971’

Bangladesh and Pakistan share complex ties; their relationship has been strained since the 1971 Liberation War , when East Pakistan gained independence from Pakistan with India’s military support and was named Bangladesh.

Under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, the tense relationship, as she sided with New Delhi on most issues. However, with her ouster, things have changed on the ground. In September, Pakistan’s high commissioner to Bangladesh, Syed Ahmed Maroof met with the interim government’s broadcasting and IT adviser, Nahid Islam. At that meeting, the two discussed the possibility of resolving longstanding tensions, particularly the sensitive issue of the 1971 Liberation War.

Following the meeting, Maroof was quoted as saying that Pakistan had a deep desire to address the “question of 1971”. Bangladesh’s Islam also acknowledged the same and indicated a willingness to move forward on the issue. “We want to resolve the issue of 1971 with Pakistan,” Islam said. “A democratic South Asia requires us to strengthen our relationship with each other.”

There’s also the fact that on September 11, the 76th death anniversary of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Dhaka’s National Press Club held a commemoration meet in which speakers praised Pakistan’s founding father. One went as far as saying that said that “without Jinnah, Pakistan would not have come into existence, and without Pakistan, Bangladesh itself would not have been born”.

Concerns for India

The improvement in relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan, however, is a growing worry for New Delhi. That’s because Bangladesh and India share a porous border through which goods and people can be easily moved.

And that’s the concern the security establishment has in New Delhi — they fear that this newfound friendship will contribute to a rise in militancy and smuggling across the border. This worry isn’t unfounded though; in 2004, Indian officials seized around 1,500 boxes of Chinese ammunitions, worth an estimated $4.5-7 million. They were allegedly meant for the banned group — ULFA. According to officials, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was behind this move.

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, told This Week in Asia that it shouldn’t surprise New Delhi that the two nations are cosying up. “It is very clear that the interim government, because of its concerns about its partnership with India, would want to take a bit of a different approach to Pakistan,” Kugelman said.

Moreover, Bangladesh is stepping further and further away from India. New Delhi’s decision to shelter Hasina has irked Dhaka. In an interview with the New York Times last week, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus questioned India’s decision to keep Hasina. “She is in India. She keeps talking. That’s a bit destabilising for the whole country,” he said. “And we try to draw attention from the Indian government that this is not fair. You are giving ground for somebody who is thrown away from Bangladesh, and you’re giving his or her a voice.”

Moreover, the recent attacks on Hindus in the country along with the arrest of former Iskcon priest, Chinmoy Krishna Das has worsened the situation. While India has repeatedly called for Bangladesh’s interim government to do more to protect the minority community, Dhaka has hit back, calling it propaganda. Yunus in the same New York Times interview alleged that India was “trying to project” an image that Bangladesh under him was becoming “like Afghanistan.”

With inputs from agencies