 "‘Axis of upheaval’ at China’s military parade: Why Xi, Putin, Kim are making West fret")
China is preparing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian for its military parade on Wednesday (September 3). They are among the more than 20 leaders who will join Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to mark 80 years since the end of World War II.
This is the first time that the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran will be together at the same place. This quartet has been described by Western political and economic analysts as the “Axis of Upheaval”.
Let’s take a closer look.
‘Axis of Upheaval’
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been dubbed the “axis of upheaval” or an “axis of growing malign partnerships” by Western analysts.
These nations, also labelled as the CRINK bloc, oppose the United States-led global order.
However, experts say there have hardly been any signs of coordination between Iran, North Korea, China and Russia.
“(China’s military parade) will be the first time that the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are all present in the same place,” Brian Hart, a fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN. “There have been little or no quadrilateral engagements between the four countries, so this is a distinctive moment.”
There are also differences in China’s and North Korea’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Beijing has maintained a publicly neutral stance, while calling for a peaceful resolution. China has, however, aided Russia’s economy and industry.
Iran and North Korea have supplied weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, with Pyongyang also sending troops.
As per CNN, this is why some observers in the West view these four nations as an emerging “anti-American axis”.
Analysts say that these states have tried to weaken US interests, be it over Taiwan or by blocking shipping lanes, or even by providing economic help to each other to undermine Western sanctions, Reuters reported.
After it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was slapped with a slew of Western sanctions. As Russian oil became cheaper, China emerged as the largest buyer of its crude.
Moscow and Beijing have also offered economic support to North Korea, which has been under United Nations Security Council sanctions since 2006 over its development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
China also buys some 90 per cent of Iran’s sanctioned oil exports.
Now, Xi is bringing the leaders of these three nations to the same stage at a time when US President Donald Trump has shaken up alliances with America’s allies and triggered a global trade war.
Trump has also engaged with Putin and plans to meet Xi and Kim in the future.
Neil Thomas, fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society, wrote on X: “For the first time, the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will be in the same place—at Beijing’s September 3 military parade to commemorate WWII. Could we see the inaugural summit of the so-called ‘axis of autocracies?’”
China’s grand military parade
Over 24 world leaders are attending the Victory Day parade in Beijing, which will exhibit the Asian giant’s military might.
China will flaunt its hypersonic weapons, fighter jets, missile defence systems, nuclear-capable missiles and undersea drones, as tens of thousands of troops march through the Chinese capital.
Besides the leaders of Iran, North Korea and Russia, Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko and South Korea’s National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik will also attend the military parade.
The only Western heads of state or government to be present at the event are Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia, and Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia.
China’s Li Junhua, who is currently the United Nations undersecretary general, will also attend.
Xi’s message for the US
Experts say the lineup of high-profile guests at China’s military parade will showcase that Beijing is not afraid to challenge the US-led global order.
It gives Xi the leverage to portray himself as a global heavyweight who has the power to influence Putin to end the war in Ukraine, which Trump has failed to do so far.
Speaking to Reuters, Alfred Wu, an associate professor with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said, “Xi Jinping is trying to showcase that he is very strong, that he is still powerful and well received in China.”
“When Xi was just a regional leader, he looked up to Putin, and saw the kind of leader he could learn from — and now he is a global leader. Having Kim alongside him, as well, highlights how Xi is now also a global leader.”
For Xi, the event offers him diplomatic leverage with the US before a likely summit with Trump later this year.
“What Xi is trying to convey is certainty about China’s role in international affairs. This is clearly signalling to people throughout the region that China has arrived as a great power and it’s not going anywhere,” Jonathan Czin, the Michael H Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, said to CNN.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, told the American broadcaster that the Chinese president is trying to send the message that he can decide the rules around who “should be deemed acceptable by the international community, regardless of what the democratic West or the US may think.”
Speaking to Reuters, Lim Chuan-Tiong, a researcher with the Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia at the University of Tokyo, said the main purpose of the “temporary spectacle” was to prop up Xi’s power and the strength of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
“Commemorating the 80th anniversary … does not necessarily require a military parade,” he said.
“Most of the [leaders] attending, the ones invited, are not there to support China’s commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of WWII,” Lim was quoted as saying by Reuters. “They are there to give face to China, to give face to Chinese leaders and to avoid harming bilateral relations. Very simple.”
With inputs from agencies
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