 "Was Trump a significant factor in the Australian elections?")
Australia’s Anthony Albanese claimed a historic second term as prime minister on Saturday (May 3) in a dramatic comeback against once-resurgent conservatives.
The Labor Party is projected to win the Australian federal elections with local media outlets calling it in favour of Albanese and his party. This victory makes Albanese the first Australian prime minister to win re-election for two decades and he will start his second term with a much stronger mandate than he secured in 2022.
On securing the win, Albanese told a raucous crowd at a victory party in Sydney, “In this time of global uncertainty, Australians have chosen optimism and determination.”
On the other hand, it was a painful day for the leader of the conservative Liberal Party, Peter Dutton. Not only was his party handed a painful defeat, but he also conceded loss from his Dickson seat, one that he held for the past 24 years. “Our Liberal family is hurting across the country tonight,” Dutton said in his speech. “We’ve been defined by our opponents in this election, which is not the true story of who we are, but we’ll rebuild from here.”
But as the votes are being tallied and pundits begin to analyse the parties performances, it is hard to skip the presence of US President Donald Trump and his impact on the polls.
Trump factor at play
Analysts believed that Donald Trump’s stinging trade tariffs may have helped Australia’s left-leaning prime minister snatch a resounding election victory. They added that even though the US president was far from the biggest concern for voters, he appeared to have a significant impact on the governing Labor Party’s late turnaround in the opinion polls, and the emphatic election result.
Poll pundits note that voters couldn’t help but notice the similarities between Trump and Dutton and perhaps that was a reason they voted for Albanese.
Dutton’s perceived “Trump-lite” policies — such as axing public service jobs in a drive for government efficiency — had turned some voters off, said Henry Maher, politics lecturer at the University of Sydney.
“Of course, there are other concerns — cost of living, defence, health and everything else,” he told AFP. “But if we want to understand why a good chunk of the electorate has changed across the election campaign over the last couple of months, I think that’s the biggest thing.”
Even Kate Harrison Brennan, who was an advisor to Labor’s former Prime Minister Julia Gillard, said Dutton’s coalition had tried out policies that “looked quite similar to those in the United States”.
Trump “definitely” had an impact on the election, she told AFP. Australians had seen the global disruption under Trump, she further added, explaining that this, in turn, had benefited Albanese.
“He made that case well, that in that type of changing world and volatility, he’d bring calm but effective leadership for Australia,” she noted.
Additionally, Trump’s unpopular 10-per cent tariff on goods from long-time ally Australia, and the financial market disruption caused by his global trade policy, may have unnerved voters, Maher said. “In times of instability, we expect people to go back to a kind of steady incumbent,” he noted.
Following Canada’s footsteps
Notably, the election results in Australia appear to be a repeat of what happened in Canada where Mark Carney was able to swing the vote in his favour dramatically. In fact, the loss of Dutton’s seat mirrors that of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre , notes CNN.
In Canada, the Conservatives were all set to win the polls — they were up ahead by 25 per cent in popular opinion polls. Most poll pundits had noted that it was Poilievre’s election to lose. However, with the departure of Justin Trudeau in January, Carney’s subsequent appointment and Trump’s threats against Canada helped turn things around for the Liberals.
In fact, Carney throughout the elections continued to project himself as the man who could save the country from Trump and his threats. Many pollsters believe that his tough position on US President Donald Trump helped the party at the polls.
Similarly, Albanese’s Labor Party was able to demonstrate a steady hand – striking an authoritative tone in response to Trump’s decision to impose 10 per cent tariffs on Australia, which were later paused, analysts said.
After Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement, Albanese called a press conference and, flanked by his foreign and trade ministers, said: “This is not the act of a friend.”
Not Trump, but other factors
However, not everyone thinks that Trump was a factor in the polls. Paul Williams, political scientist at Griffith University, said Albanese would have won even if Joe Biden was still in the White House. He noted that it was the Australian central bank’s decision to cut key interest rates in February which was a “turning point” in Labor’s fortunes.
“Obviously this has been a cost-of-living election, but my take is that the sting is coming out of the tail of the cost of living, because wages are catching up to inflation,” Williams told AFP.
Undecided voters were not avoiding Dutton because he reminded them of Trump, Williams said. “They are doing it because of Peter Dutton. Peter Dutton has lost this election because of Peter Dutton.”
With inputs from AFP, Reuters, CNN
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