Will Peter Dutton unseat Albanese as PM? How and when will Australia decide?

After a shocking election in Canada, comes Australia. The country will go to vote on Saturday (May 3) with the cost of living crisis being at the front of the minds of many Australians. Notably, Australia is among a handful of nations that enforces compulsory voting, boasting a turnout rate of more than 90 per cent.

As Australians gear up to cast their vote and decide the future of their country, we take a closer look at all the things that matter this election — from the polling process to contenders, the major issues and who has a better chance of winning.

How do Australian elections work?

Before we dive into the contenders and their policies this election, let’s understand Australia’s electoral system.

Australia is among the few countries in the world where voting is compulsory for those aged 18 and above. The party or coalition that secures a majority in the House of Representatives forms the government, and its leader becomes the prime minister.

More from Explainers

Why are Australian politicians turning to Chinese social media to win votes Anthony Albanese set to return as Australia PM as Labor wins federal election

Australia follows a preferential voting system, which means you don’t just tick your choice of candidate. It’s a system that requires voters to rank their preferred candidates from first all the way through to the last on their ballot papers.

To win a seat, a candidate needs to get more than 50 per cent of the first-preference votes. However, if no candidate reaches that threshold, the one with the fewest votes is excluded and their votes are distributed to the person each of those voters nominated as their second preference. This continues until one candidate passes the 50 per cent threshold.

On the day of voting, Australians will receive two ballot papers — one for the House of Representatives (the lower house) and one for the Senate (the upper house). It’s important to note that the process for voting slightly differs for both the houses of parliament.

Editor’s Picks

1

Australian PM Albanese's popularity hits all-time low as opposition surges ahead 2

What is Australia’s work and holiday visa for Indians under 30?

Who are the main contenders for this election?

The two major players in the 2025 federal election are the Labor Party (ALP) and the Coalition, which is made up of the Liberal Party and the Nationals. The two contenders for prime minister are current PM Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Alabanese, who became prime minister in 2022, is a veteran of Australian politics. Before securing the top job, he had been in parliament for over a quarter of a century. Known widely as “Albo”, the 61-year-old father-of-one has traditionally aligned himself with Labor’s left. However, as prime minister, he has adopted more centrist positions.

This election, Albanese is being challenged by Peter Dutton, who became head of the Liberal-National coalition after their 2022 defeat. He is contesting his first election as opposition leader.

A father of three, Dutton was a police officer and businessman before entering politics. He is known for his conservative views on issues such as national security, immigration, and law and order. Dutton has also blamed the Albanese government of worsening the inflation crisis and has pledged to cut public spending.

While the Australian elections are being viewed largely as a two-way race, there are other contenders in the running. There’s Adam Bandt, the leader of the Australian Greens, who has framed this election as a choice between progressive policies that make people’s lives better, or a US-style shift to the right.

There’s also David Littleproud, leader of the National Party. Most poll watchers note that if Dutton wins the election, Littleproud will serve as his deputy.

What are the main issues this election?

The biggest issue that voters will be thinking of this Saturday when they head to the polling booths is the rising cost of living. The country is witnessing a huge surge in inflation causing the prices of everyday items to skyrocket. For instance, prices of eggs have surged 11 per cent while beer has increase to four per cent.

The central bank’s benchmark interest rates have been seeing a rise — peaking at 4.35 per cent in November 2023. Annual inflation peaked that year at 7.8 per cent.

A housing crisis is another huge issue this election. Rising inflation has forced some builders out of business, causing a shortage of houses, which in turn has inflated rents. The government has provided tax cuts and assistance for some rent and energy bills, but critics argue government spending has contributed to maintaining elevated inflation.

Australia’s universal healthcare system, now struggling because of staff shortages and soaring costs, is another major concern for voters. Politicians across the spectrum admit there’s a crisis, with many Australians delaying or skipping care — and both parties have promised billions in additional funding to fix it.

Foreign policy, namely ties with China, will also be on the minds of Australian voters. Trade and diplomatic relations between Australia and China plunged to new depths in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic. But since then, ties have improved with Albanese being quoted as saying, “We will cooperate where we can, disagree where we must and engage in the national interest.”

Dutton, on the other hand, is a critic of China and maintains that a tough and uncompromising approach is the way to deal with Beijing. He has also accused Albanese of self-censorship to avoid offending Beijing.

But the bigger global issue, this time around, is US President Donald Trump . Simon Jackman, an honorary professor at the University of Sydney and former chief executive officer of its US Studies Centre, told CNN, “Funnily enough, Trump is probably seen as a bigger threat to the global order than China.”

Many experts note that the Trump factor may hurt Dutton more than Albanese. In fact, when Trump was inaugurated in January, Dutton was ahead in the polls, as Australians expressed anger over the cost of living and housing affordability. However, most polls in the final stretch of the campaign show Labor ahead, although it may need the support of independent lawmakers to form government.

Speaking on the same, Andrew Carswell, former press secretary to Liberal Party Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who lost office at the previous election, told Reuters that Trump had been “a wrecking ball” for Australia’s conservative coalition and more broadly across the world. “Australian voters are looking on with concern at what is happening and saying if that is change, we don’t want it,” he said.

When will we know the election results?

Once the polls close, counting begins right away and results are updated in real time on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website. Whichever party wins 76 seats in the lower house will be declared the winner. In the outgoing parliament, Albanese’s party held 77 seats whereas Dutton’s Liberal-National Coalition had 53 seats after a sound defeat at the last vote in 2022.

Australians will know of the results by the end of election day — the result is usually called by media commentators, election experts or even the candidates themselves. The official result will take days or even weeks to come, as the election body has to go through a rigorous counting process, counting approximately 18 million ballot papers by hand, including postal and overseas ballot papers.

Who is most likely to win the Australian elections?

Since campaigning began for the polls, opinions have shifted significantly in Labor’s favour. Most poll pundits expect Albanese to retain government either with a slim majority or with the support of minor parties and independents.

If Albanese does win, he become the first Australian leader in more than two decades to win consecutive terms in office.

With inputs from agencies