BJP wins in Hindi heartland: How this sets the tone for 2024

The Assembly election results are out and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has gained big, with three Hindi heartland states – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh – in its kitty. While some exit polls had predicted a victory for the saffron party in Rajasthan and MP, the BJP’s win in Chhattisgarh has come as a surprise, particularly for the Congress. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is set to win 54 seats, while the Congress is trailing at 35 seats. The saffron party is ready to sweep MP with 164 seats and the Congress is reduced to the second spot with 65 seats. Rajasthan has given 115 seats to the BJP against Congress’ 69 seats. The Grand Old Party has registered a notable victory in Telangana with 64 seats, while K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is a distant second with 39 seats, followed by the BJP with eight seats. Expressing gratitude to the people, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attributed the BJP’s victory in the three states of the Hindi belt to the “politics of good governance and development”. “I thank the people of these states for their unwavering support and assure them that we will keep working tirelessly for their well-being,” he wrote on X.

Congress MP Rahul Gandhi “humbly” accepted defeat in the three states, saying the “battle of ideology will continue.” He also thanked the people of Telangana, promising a prajalu (common people) state. Will these Assembly results impact the 2024 general elections? What do the results mean for the BJP and Congress? We explain. Impact on 2024 Lok Sabha polls The Assembly elections held in the winter months ahead of the general elections are seen as a semi-final ahead of the main battle. However, the Assembly election results are not always in line with the Lok Sabha polls as witnessed previously. In 2018, the Congress won Rajasthan, wresting power from the BJP. But in the general elections held next year, just months later, the Grand Old Party failed to secure even a single seat from the desert state, with the BJP bagging all the constituencies, noted The Quint. The Congress had also formed the government in MP in 2018, but it won only one seat in the Lok Sabha elections only a few months later. [caption id=“attachment_13461372” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The BJP won three states in the Hindi belt – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. PTI[/caption] Since Chhattisgarh was formed in 2000, the BJP has dominated Lok Sabha seats from the state, irrespective of being in power in the state or not, according to The Quint report. The Congress has managed to win just one or two out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In Telangana , the BJP and Congress performed better in the 2019 LS polls as compared to the Assembly elections in 2018 when the BRS had formed the government in the state, the report added. It is only in Mizoram where the ruling party wins the lone Lok Sabha seat from the state as witnessed since 1998, reported The Quint. The counting of votes for Mizoram will take place on Monday (4 December). ALSO READ: BJP juggernaut and national politics: Seven takeaways for 2024 elections What the win means for BJP Bagging three states in the Hindi heartland is surely to enthuse the BJP rank and file with new vigour. Defeating the Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as well as retaining MP is already a shot in the arm for the saffron party. As the BJP fought the Assembly elections in these five states in PM Modi’s name and under a “collective leadership”, the results show his popularity remains intact, particularly in the Hindi belt. The saffron party will credit the victory to Modi in these three states, publicising it as another badge of honour in the long list of achievements of the PM. As journalist Iftikhar Gilani wrote in a piece for Moneycontrol, the Assembly election results have “revealed a clear north-south divide”. “The BJP has once again shown that its machinery and message are intact in the Hindi heartland”. According to The Quint, while the Assembly results may not indicate what will happen in the Lok Sabha polls next year, it is likely to shape the narrative in the run-up to the general elections as the three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – are mostly bipolar contests between the BJP and the Congress. “These elections may not be a barometer of the popular mood, but they give the political parties an idea of how they want to position themselves for the big battle in the coming months,” as per the Moneycontrol piece. What about Congress? The Congress has much to take away from these Assembly election results. As Gilani wrote in the piece, “The narrative of supporting caste census without having a significant OBC (Other Backward Classes) leader in its national leadership and toeing a soft Hindutva line is not working.” The Grand Old Party has called for a nationwide caste census. The Congress’ failure to retain both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh could affect the morale of its workers in the Hindi heartland. It may also be a setback to the party’s “credibility” to lead the INDIA alliance and affect its bargaining power during seat-sharing talks. [caption id=“attachment_13461382” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The Telangana Congress chief A Revanth Reddy with party workers and supporters celebrate the lead in the state. PTI[/caption] However, it is not all bad news for the Congress, which would be taking solace from its victory in another southern state after Karnataka in May. The success in Telangana is sweeter in the point of view of funds for the party for next year’s Lok Sabha elections, noted The Quint. With inputs from agencies