The Assad reign in Syria is over. Why this may be a worry for India

Syrians in and around the world are celebrating. The more than 50 years of the Assad regime — with Bashar al-Assad in power since 2000 — has come to an end with the rebels entering the capital, Damascus, on Sunday.

The Syrian rebels announced early Sunday (December 8) that it had defeated al-Assad’s regime, forcing the ousted president to flee the country, with Russian media reporting that he has been given asylum there.

While the world watches the developments unfold in Syria — New Delhi is also keeping an eye on how the situation progresses with some experts fearing that it could have negative repercussions for India. Here’s how.

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Assad’s ouster

On Sunday, 11 days into the new offensive launched by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham , the rebels made their way into Damascus — a first since 2018 — putting an end to five decades of Assad family rule. As Reuters wrote in one report — the lightning advance relied on an almost perfect alignment of stars for the forces opposed to Assad: his army was demoralised and exhausted; his main allies, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, were severely weakened by conflict with Israel; and his other key military supporter, Russia, was distracted and losing interest.

As rebels reached the gates of the Syrian capital, Bashar al-Assad fled the country, making his way to Russia , where he, his wife, Asma, and their children, have now been granted asylum on “humanitarian grounds”.

Soon after his ouster, international governments welcomed the end of the Assads’ autocratic government. European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said, “The cruel Assad dictatorship has collapsed. This historic change in the region offers opportunities but is not without risks. Europe is ready to support safeguarding national unity and rebuilding a Syrian state that protects all minorities.”

French President Emmanuel Macron also said, “The barbaric state has fallen. Finally. I pay tribute to the Syrian people, to their courage, to their patience. In this moment of uncertainty, I wish them peace, freedom and unity. France will remain committed to the security of all in the Middle East.”

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UK PM Keir Starmer shared similar remarks. “The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored. We call on all sides to protect civilians and minorities and ensure essential aid can reach the most vulnerable in the coming hours and days.”

India’s stance on Syria

While other countries hailed the end of the autocratic reign of Assad, India has remained mum on the issue.

However, on Sunday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar did point out that multiple conflicts in West Asia were challenging. Speaking at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, S Jaishankar said, “What we do in my business is essentially try to address the challenges of the day as collectively and as effectively as possible. And this today would extend from Gaza to Lebanon and now to Syria as well. But at the same time, we have to be realistic about competing interests in this region.

“One of the interesting evolutions of the world today is actually on different issues, sometimes in the same region, you have a different combination of countries that are working together,” he added.

India’s old ties with Syria

New Delhi shares old ties with Damascus under the Assad rule. The two countries share a healthy trade relationship. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the first prime minister of India to visit Syria after Bashar al-Assad had taken over as the president in July 2000 less after his predecessor and father Hafez al-Assad’s demise. Meanwhile, V Muraleedharan, the minister of state for external affairs, was the last dignitary from India to meet President Bashar al-Assad during a visit to Syria in July 2023.

New Delhi has also played a key role in Syria’s development, including a $240 million line of credit for the MW Tishreen Thermal Power Plant Extension project, investments in IT infrastructure, steel plant modernisation, the oil sector, and significant exports of rice, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.

Diplomatically too, the two countries are close. In fact, the sixth round of India-Syria Foreign Office Consultations took place in New Delhi on November 29. At the time, the MEA said, “India and Syria enjoy warm and friendly relations based on historic and civilisational ties. India has been a keen developmental partner for Syria and is also actively involved in capacity building of the Syrian youth. Both the countries also cooperate on various multilateral forums. The discussions held today will contribute in further strengthening of India-Syria bilateral partnership.”

India has also extended humanitarian aid to Syria after the devastating earthquake in February last year. During the Covid pandemic, New Delhi also called for the relaxation of sanctions, citing humanitarian concerns.

Even when civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, New Delhi called for the conflict to be resolved through a non-military, Syrian-led political process. And when other nations isolated Assad and Syria was suspended from the Arab League, India continued its ties with the nation.

Furthermore, according to India’s MEA, 94 Indians continue to live in the country.

Concerns for New Delhi

Now, with Assad’s ouster, India has reasons to worry.

Why?

Firstly, Syria, under the Assads, have backed the Indian position on the Kashmir issue for decades, including at the Organisation of Islamic Conference. When India revoked Article 370 in Jammu-Kashmir, Syria called it an internal matter. Then Syrian envoy to New Delhi Riad Abbas had commented: “Every government has the right to do whatever it likes on its land to protect its people. We are always with India on any action.”

However, the rebels, who have now overthrown Assad, have had the backing of Turkey . It is common knowledge that Turkey supports Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly raised the issue of Kashmir at the United Nations.

Some believe that with Assad’s ouster, Turkish and Pakistani intelligence agencies will have the opportunity to penetrate Syria and from there cause harm to India. Abhinav Pandya, founder, director and CEO of the Usanas Foundation think tank, told ETV Bharat, “They can sabotage India’s national security,” he said.

Secondly, the Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that spearheaded the offensive resulting in Assad’s ouster, has its foundation in Al-Qaeda. Also, the leader of the Islamic State group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi , was involved in the formation of the HTS.

Now, some experts fear that the rebels’ win will pave the way for these terror groups to operate freely in Syria, imperiling India’s interests in the country as well as the region. Many have stated that their success will lead to a rise in Indian Muslim youth being radicalised and being recruited into these groups. “Syria will become another Afghanistan. There will be a rise in organised crime, drug trafficking and weapons smuggling,” said Pandya to ETV Bharat.

The ambitious IMEEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) is also at risk now. With rebels in charge, it is unknown if they will protect the railway and ship-rail transit network and road transport routes, which will traverse the country.

Currently, Syria’s future is murky. But New Delhi will hope for peace and calm in order to protect its interests in Syria and the West Asian region.

With inputs from agencies