 "Arvind Kejriwal arrest: Will AAP survive the crisis? Will it hurt party’s chances in Lok Sabha polls?")
It was months in the making. Now Arvind Kejriwal has been arrested in the alleged Delhi liquor scam. The Enforcement Directorate conducted searches at the Delhi chief minister’s residence on Thursday. He was questioned and then arrested, as the Delhi high court refused to intervene and provide any protection to him.
Kejriwal is the first serving chief minister to be arrested. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief is the third senior leader from the party to be held in connection to the Delhi excise policy case . The other two are AAP MP Sanjay Singh and former Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia.
The Delhi CM’s arrest comes ahead of the Lok Sabha election . AAP ministers Atishi and Saurabh Bharadwaj were also detained during protests against the arrest.
With many of its top leaders now arrested, what happens to the party? Will it dent its chances in the upcoming polls? We explain.
Will Kejriwal step down as CM?
As of now, from what AAP leaders have been saying, Kejriwal will not step down as Delhi chief minister.
Delhi minister Atishi has said that the AAP convenor will continue as CM and run the government from jail. “Arvind Kejriwal is and will remain the Chief Minister of Delhi… there are no two ways about it,” Atishi, who is currently the Number 2 in the Kejriwal government, was quoted as saying by NDTV.
“We made it clear from the beginning that he will work from jail if need be. There is no law that stops him from doing so. He has not been convicted,” she added.
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More ShortsDelhi health and urban development minister Saurabh Bharadwaj echoed the same views. “There is no plan to change the Delhi chief minister or the party chief. We have said before that if he is arrested, he will govern from jail and that stance has not changed.”
However, it is not easy to run a government from behind bars. There are legal and constitutional challenges that remain.
Several ministers, including from the AAP, like Satyendar Jain (arrested in a separate money laundering case) and Sisodia, have resigned after being denied bail.
Also read: What led to Arvind Kejriwal's arrest? What is his link to Delhi liquor policy case?
Who leads the AAP in Kejriwal’s absence?
Even if Kejriwal refuses to resign, the party will need a leader who is accessible – one who can run AAP and the Delhi government on the ground.
The AAP chief oversees everyday governance and plays a crucial role in expanding the party’s footprints in other parts of the country. He is the face of the AAP.
But now with his arrest, the party will need some serious rethinking. It doesn’t help that the other big political minds in AAP – Sisodia, Jain and Sanjay Singh are already jailed.
The challenge is to find a worthy leader who can match Kejriwal’s stature. He has been the party’s convenor since its inception in 2012 and the Delhi CM for three terms spanning nearly a decade.
The next rung of leaders include Atishi, Bharadwaj, Raghav Chadha, Gopal Rai and Sandeep Pathak. The names doing the rounds to lead the party are Kejriwal’s wife Sunita and Cabinet ministers Atishi and Bharadwaj.
Sunita is a former Indian Revenue Service (IRS) officer but has maintained a low profile all along.
Atishi, who holds the most number of portfolios in the Delhi government, including education, finance, PWD, revenue and services, is considered a close aide of Arvind Kejriwal. She is also a spokesperson of the party, who has been defending the AAP government and Arvind Kejriwal, and attacking the BJP in her press conferences and appearances on news channels – more so after the arrest.
Another prominent member of the Delhi cabinet is Bharadwaj, who holds important portfolios, including health and urban development. A known face, he is often seen defending the party’s leaders and counter-attacking the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its government at the Centre on issues of governance and politics.
The other name that has come up is that of Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann, according to a report in the Press Trust of India (PTI). While he is popular among cadres in the state, it remains to be seen if he will leave it for Delhi.
Apart from running the governments in Delhi and Punjab, AAP also has MLAs in Gujarat and Goa.
With limited options, the party has to act quickly. The Lok Sabha elections are around the corner and Delhi also faces assembly elections next year.
Will Kejriwal’s arrest hurt the party’s chances in Lok Sabha?
The arrest is the biggest crisis AAP has faced since its birth. With the Lok Sabha elections nearing, the timing could not have been worse.
The party’s campaign in Delhi and Gujarat, where it is contesting four and two seats respectively, is centred around Kejriwal. The Delhi campaign is titled “Sansad Mein Bhi Kejriwal, Toh Dilli Hogi Aur Khush Haal” and in, Gujarat it says “Gujarat Mein Bhi Kejriwal”.
In Punjab, while Mann remains the face of AAP, Kejriwal has been travelling frequently. The party is contesting all 13 seats without an alliance with the Congress.
However, the ED’s move comes as no surprise and the party seems to have a plan in place – Kejriwal has sealed an alliance with the Congress in Delhi, Gujarat and Haryana.
Now the party is expected to use the arrest to its advantage and gather public sympathy. AAP leaders have already raised an alarm.
“The Chief Minister has been punished in a false case, what enmity does the Central Government have towards his elderly parents and children? No one is being allowed to meet his family. No one can even sympathize and he is upset,” Bharadwaj said in a post on X.
Atishi has raised concerns about Kejriwal’s security. “For the first time in the country, a sitting Chief Minister has been arrested. Arvind Kejriwal has Z+ security cover. Now he is in the custody of ED of the Central Government. We are concerned about their safety and security,” she wrote.
देश में पहली बार एक sitting Chief Minister को गिरफ़्तार किया गया है। अरविंद केजरीवाल के पास Z+ security cover होता है। अब वो केंद्र सरकार की ED की कस्टडी में हैं। हमें उनके safety और security की चिंता है।
— Atishi (@AtishiAAP) March 22, 2024
Security has been tightened near roads leading to BJP headquarters where AAP leaders and workers will protest. The public images from the chaos following the arrest, the party, hopes will work in its favour to evoke emotions among its supporters.
Also read: How Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest intensifies the AAP-BJP tussle
“The liquor scam might have dented Kejriwal’s image to some extent but not among his core voters who have hugely benefitted from his so-called freebies. They still consider him the best bet in Delhi and someone who has not been allowed to do his work by the central government,” writes Aurangzeb Naqshbandi, a senior journalist in moneycontrol. “The AAP is hoping that Kejriwal’s arrest will stir the people and further consolidate the 12-year-old party.”
But with its main man arrested, it remains to be seen how much the party can stick to its motto: “Ladenge, jeetenge”.
With inputs from agencies
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