Are Ukraine, Moldova a step closer to becoming European Union members?

The European Union’s executive commission has recommended that detailed negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova to join the bloc can begin next year and has proposed offering candidate status to Georgia. The development comes a day after the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that his country would join the bloc. “Completing our Union is the call of history,” said von der Leyen. “Completing our Union also has a strong economic and geopolitical logic. Past enlargements have shown the enormous benefits both for the accession countries and the EU. We all win.” In September, von der Leyen said that Ukraine had made ‘significant strides’. The EU had in 2022 granted Ukraine candidate status in a symbolic move. But what happened exactly? And what does Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU and candidate status being offered Georgia mean exactly? Let’s take a closer look: What happened? The European Union’s executive recommended on Wednesday that the bloc starts membership negotiations with Ukraine. “The commission recommends that the (EU) Council opens accession negotiations with Ukraine,” said the Brussels-based European Commission. It added the talks should formally be launched once Kyiv satisfied remaining conditions related to stepping up fight against corruption, adopting a law on lobbying in line with EU standards and strengthening national minority safeguards. “Today is a historic day, because today the commission recommends that the council opens accession negotiations with Ukraine and with Moldova,” EU chief Ursula von de Leyen said. “The neighbourhood, our neighbourhood, has to choose where they want to go. And the western Balkans, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine chose very clearly where they want to go,” she was quoted as saying by The Guardian.

The newspaper said the EU has also endorsed the formation of an “accession fund” worth €6 billion.

The countries in line for membership would receive payments from this fund twice per year. However, if they do not carry out reforms they would stop receiving payments. Georgia, meanwhile, must also meet several conditions including aligning itself with the EU’s foreign policy sanctions, pushing back against disinformation and political polarisation, as well as ensuring a free and fair election in 2024. “The commission recommends that the (European) Council grants Georgia the status of a candidate country on the understanding that certain reforms that steps are taken," von der Leyen added. [caption id=“attachment_13366332” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] “Ukraine continues to face tremendous hardship and tragedy provoked by Russia’s war of aggression,” she said. “And yet, the Ukrainians are deeply reforming their country, even as they are fighting a war that is existential for them.” The commission’s report on Wednesday showed that Kyiv met four out of seven conditions to start formal accession talks, though more were near completion. Von der Leyen said the Brussels-based Commission would reassess progress next March. Zelenskyy has praised the decision as a “historic step”. The 27 national EU leaders are next due to decide mid-December whether to accept the Commission’s recommendation. Any such decision requires unanimity of the bloc’s 27 members, with Hungary seen as the main potential obstacle. A top aide to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Budapest would not support Ukraine’s EU integration unless Kyiv changes its laws on minorities, in particular as regards education. The commission on Wednesday made a similar recommendation for Moldova, a small neighbour of Ukraine that is struggling with its own tensions with Moscow. The Guardian quoted EU officials calling Moldova a “frontrunner” to join the EU and saying the country had made “great progress.” “I’m very confident that Moldova will move on because [its] track record is impressive under very difficult circumstances,” von der Leyen was quoted as saying by the newspaper. “Moldova is firmly on the path for EU membership and we will continue working relentlessly towards this goal,” the country’s president, Maia Sandu, said in welcoming the move. Brussels further said Georgia should receive the status of a membership candidate once it meets outstanding conditions, including Tbilisi aligning with the EU sanctions against Russia for waging its war against Ukraine. EU officials see the Georgian government as more inclined towards doing business with Moscow but they say Georgian society is strongly pro-European. The commission said the EU should also begin membership talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina once a long list of extensive conditions are met. That is seen as a tall order as EU countries are split on Sarajevo with Austria, Slovenia and Croatia in favour of bringing it closer to the bloc but the Netherlands leading a camp highlighting democratic backsliding in Bosnia. In 2013, Croatia was the last to join the EU – a bloc of 450 million people and one of the richest places in the world, though increasingly struggling to keep its international clout. In 2020, Britain was the first country to ever leave the EU, a major setback for European integration following World War Two. What does it mean? For Ukraine, this has been a long time coming. In 2013, then president Viktor Yanukovych, when faced with the decision of joining the EU or tilting towards Russia, chose Putin. That eventually led to Yanukovych fleeing the country after widespread protests. Then, in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea. Ukraine in 2019 amended its constitution to make joining the EU and NATO its goal. In 2022, Zelenskyy applied for membership of the EU before Russia invaded. The recommendation is an important milestone on Kyiv’s road to Western integration. It is also a geo-political gambit for the West as it comes in the backdrop of Ukraine fending off a large-scale Russian invasion since February 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put enlargement back at the top of the EU’s political agenda as the geo-political rivalry between Moscow and the West erupted with a new force. [caption id=“attachment_13352612” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Over the weekend, Russia said that its air defence forces had repulsed air strikes from Ukraine Image Courtesy Reuters[/caption] But it’s not going to be an easy task for Europe. As Stefan Lehne from the Carnegie Europe think-tank told BBC, “EU leaders understand the urgency of anchoring Ukraine firmly in the West, but they are also aware that the country’s security situation would pose greater challenges than any previous EU enlargement." “The EU will have genuine problems in integrating a country that is so big and so different from the present members.” To move on to the next stage, the opening of accession talks, the European Commission has defined seven benchmarks Kyiv must meet. These include conditions to be met in the fight against widespread corruption and judicial reforms. And yet some say the development means very little as of today. A senior EU diplomat told CNN that while the commission has taken the “political decision” of opening talks, the real discussions will commence only after all the conditions are fulfilled.

That could take years when it comes to Ukraine.

A piece in CNN noted while the development is a ‘significant milestone’ for Kyiv, it is simply one highway marker on the road to membership of the EU. “That process could take up to a decade and no one can say with any certainty where Ukraine or the rest of Europe will be politically by that point,” the piece concluded. “It’s obviously heated, difficult if it weren’t, we’d have a compromise decision already,” one senior European diplomat was quoted as saying by The Times of India. “I’m optimistic that we’ll be able to get it done. The problem is that it’s not going to be the end of the road, it’s likely going to be conditional.” Some say the EU has no choice but to go ahead. “If Ukraine doesn’t join the EU, then the country will be lost to Russia. It’s autocracy versus democracy. We can’t just watch while Russia invades other countries that have European aspirations,” Akhvlediani added. Georgia could also face a long road ahead. “Just because you are granted candidate status, it doesn’t mean you will join the EU tomorrow,” another EU diplomat told BBC. Akhvlediani of the Centre for European Policy Studies pointed to the Western Balkans as perhaps the best “of how slow, tricky and inefficient the process can be.” “It can be because of ethnic identities, cultural differences, even the name of the country. Greece demanded that Macedonia change its name to North Macedonia,” Akhvlediani added. Regardless, the people of Ukraine have greeted the development warmly. “I want to be part of the European Union,” Katarina Zinovieva from Kherson told The Guardian. “I really want it. Some may think that our priority at the moment is to free ourselves from the Russian invasion. But if joining the EU could also help to end the conflict, then we should all make an extra effort to achieve it.” Leonid Skoryk, 32, a member of Ukraine’s armed forces, told the newspaper, “It would be great if we could join the EU.” “They seem happier there in Europe. Plus, we need to get rid of all our Soviet heritage,” Skoryk concluded. With inputs from agencies