 "Are India and Canada ties going the India-Pakistan way?")
Are ties between India and Canada going the way of India-Pakistan?
The relationship between New Delhi and Ottawa seems to be plumbing new depths.
On Tuesday, both sides expelled half a dozen diplomats each.
This came a day after Canada claimed that the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats were ‘persons of interest’ in an investigation into the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
India dismissed the allegations as ‘preposterous’ and claimed that the Justin Trudeau government is trying to cater to a local vote bank.
India then said it was withdrawing its diplomats including the high commissioner from Canada because it was not confident that their safety could be guaranteed.
“We have no faith in the current Canadian Government’s commitment to ensure their security. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials,” India’s foreign ministry said.
Let’s take a closer look:
Tit-for-tat, downgrading diplomatic relations
India on Tuesday expelled six Canadian diplomats hours after recalling the Indian high commissioner and some other officials from Canada.
India has also downgraded its diplomatic ties with Canada.
The Canadian diplomats have been asked to leave India by or before 11:59 pm on October 19, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.
The diplomats who have been expelled are Stewart Ross Wheeler, Acting High Commissioner, Patrick Hebert, Deputy High Commissioner, Marie Catherine Joly, First Secretary and lan Ross David Trites, First Secretary.
The other two diplomats are Adam James Chuipka, First Secretary, and Paula Orjuela, First Secretary.
Canadian Charge d’Affaires Stewart Wheelers was summoned to the Ministry of External Affairs on Monday and bluntly told that baseless “targeting” of the Indian envoy and other officials was “completely unacceptable”.
Canada, meanwhile, expelled six Indian diplomats including the high commissioner.
Canada’s foreign ministry said: “The decision to expel these individuals was made with great consideration and only after the RCMP gathered ample, clear and concrete evidence which identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case.”
New Delhi in October 2023 had withdrawn diplomatic immunity and security protection for 41 Canadian diplomats and their relatives. It told Ottawa to reduce by two-thirds its diplomatic strength in India.
India similarly had expelled dozens of Pakistani diplomats in June 2020, as per BBC.
New Delhi also said it would reduce its staff at the High Commission in Islamabad.
Pakistan in 2019 had downgraded diplomatic ties with India after the Centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.
India had downgraded relations with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pulwama attacks.
Not acting against terror groups
India has accused Canada of not acting against Khalistani separatist groups operating out of its soil – just like it has Pakistan.
A piece in India Today pointed out that at least nine Khalistani terror groups are based out of Canada.
Ottawa has not acted against them despite multiple requests from New Delhi.
“Some individuals who have entered Canada illegally have been fast-tracked for citizenship. Multiple extradition requests from the Government of India in respect of terrorists and organised crime leaders living in Canada have been disregarded,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in its statement on October 14.
India in June slammed Canada’s Parliament observing “one minute silence” in the memory of Khalistan extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
“We naturally oppose any moves giving political space to extremism and advocacy of violence,” External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.
India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar had in 2023 slammed Canada for allowing a float in a parade that showed the assassination of former prime minister Indira Gandhi.
The tableau was displayed in a pro-Khalistani parade in Brampton.
US backing
Like Pakistan, Canada has the support of the United States.
As per Indian Express, Washington and Ottawa both had meetings with their Indian counterparts over the past week where they outlined ‘credible information’ on an Indian government official’s alleged involvement in the killings and plans to kill pro-Khalistani separatists.
“It was an ambush by both Americans and Canadians,” a top official source told the newspaper.
Domestic politics
As per India Today, Trudeau’s government, like Pakistan, is acting out of domestic considerations.
Trudeau, ahead of the 2025 general election, is looking to woo the influential Sikh community.
Trudeau and his coalition government were at one point being supported by the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by pro-Khalistani Jagmeet Singh.
“That his government was dependent on a political party, whose leader openly espouses a separatist ideology vis-a-vis India, only aggravated matters,” MEA said.
India and Jaishankar have repeatedly called out Trudeau government’s ‘vote bank’ politics.
The MEA also pointed to individuals in the cabinet who are “openly associated with an extremist and separatist agenda regarding India,” as per India Today.
What do experts say?
That ties between India and Canada, at the moment, resemble those of India and Pakistan.
“From India’s point of view, it had no choice but to be confrontationist. This is because Canada, under Trudeau, is behaving like a Western version of Pakistan,” a piece in News18 noted.
The piece pointed to parallels between the two nations including becoming home to religious fanatic and hardliners including in Parliament.
“Over the last few decades, several Sikh members of its Parliament, belonging to one party, are out and out advocates of Khalistan,” the piece added.
The article noted that in Canada, just like in Pakistan, acts of violence are being glorified.
It pointed to a tableau depicting the assassination of prime minister Indira Gandhi in a pro-Khalistani parade in Brampton.
“And much like in Pakistan where often the state is in bed with extremists, in Canada too, the head of the executive, who in this case would be PM Trudeau, is routinely seeing shimmying on stage with “Khalistanis” that actively plot and bankroll insurgencies in India to murderous consequences,” the piece noted.
“Canada has become the new Pakistan for India,” Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, was quoted as saying by India Today.
Foreign policy expert Michael Kugelman told Hindustan Times that the relationship is at rock bottom.
“This is a relationship that’s now hit rock bottom and indeed, looking at recent developments, certainly is reminiscent of India’s relations with Pakistan in terms of these extremely serious allegations being made, in terms of senior diplomats being expelled, as well as the use of blistering language in government statements, it’s all there and of course, the core allegation that we’re hearing from India that Canada is sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists. This is what we’re used to hearing India say about Pakistan,” he said.
“There are a lot of factors at play here. Certainly, one could acknowledge the relevance of the domestic political realities in Canada,” he said.
Former Indian diplomat KP Fabian said he does not see things getting better as long as Trudeau remains PM.
“We can hope and pray that both governments give this a deep thought and work towards de-escalating this situation, but I am not fully sure that this may be the case. The signals we have been receiving thus far foreshadow an escalation, and unfortunately, as long as Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister in Canada, we do not see things getting better,” Fabian warned.
“The upcoming elections in Canada are in 2025, in autumn that year. If need be they can be advanced to an earlier date, but it’s not like Justin Trudeau’s popularity is going up, it is actually going down instead. The economy is also in a tricky place. That’s why we have a feeling that Justin Trudeau will probably not win the next elections, it will be a new government that is formed instead,” he said. Fabian added, “Our relations, you know, will get better. But I hope that we do not wait until then.”
Fabian also expressed concern about possible violence in Canada from Khalistanis. “Thirdly, if there is an escalation, the Khalistani people are a very small minority in the country, the Sikh community. However, they are extremely active, and they have a leadership position as well. Those people, I pray it doesn’t happen, but it may be a case where this group initiates violence against Hindus, at places like Hindu Temples, etc,” he said.
Foreign policy expert and Senior fellow at the Observor Research foundation, Sushant Sareen called for an investigation into Canada’s interference in India’s internal affairs. He emphasised the need to probe Canadian NGOs and embassies that support Khalistelements.
“The calling back of our officials, about whom Canadians have said that investigations can be done against them, if you say this about any official that they will be investigated, then it becomes completely dishonest for them to stay in the country. The official can’t function there,” Sareen said.
Sareen asserted that India has given a strong reaction but along with it, there should also be some action.
“The reaction is quite strong but along with the reaction, there should be some action also. Canada’s interference in India, be it their NGOs, their embassies, should also be investigated so that they can be exposed as to how they encourage Khalistanis.”
He added, “India can keep open embassies but can close their consulates if relations deteriorate further.”
Sareen also spoke about the deteriorating relations between the two nations and asserted that even if Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not there in power, the relations will not get better soon.
He said, “The relations have become so bad that even if Trudeau is not there in power, I don’t think the relations will get normalised any sooner. The poison that Trudeau has put into this relationship will take a lot of time to heal, and it won’t happen overnight.”
He added, “There is an angle of domestic politics in the foreign policy of every country but every country tries that beyond a point, the political angle doesn’t affect your diplomacy but Canada doesn’t care about it; maybe because they think that India can’t do anything, or even if we make India upset, we don’t need to worry. We can’t upset China because we take money from them but we can do that with India and then the United States is there to handle India and this is the costless option for option for us. Now we have to see what the Modi government will do.”
Meanwhile, Robinder Sachdev, foreign affairs expert, also spoke about the expulsion of Canadian diplomats by India and said, “Things were definitely headed this way after what the Canadian government’s position has been… A government like that of Canada should be mature enough to understand that a reaction like this will follow from India. Relations between the two nations are frozen right now. There is no point in keeping a diplomatic presence there. The security of life and safety of our diplomats in Canada can be under threat…”
Sachdev attributed Canada’s decision to expel Indian diplomats to “vote bank politics.”
He said, “There are two main reasons why Canada reacted the way it did. The first is the vote bank politics of the Trudeau government in Canada. He is surviving on a very slim majority and his support, to a good degree, comes from the Indian origin people, especially the supporters of Khalistan. Secondly, he is playing a game of Chinese checkers. He is under a scandal in Canada for interference by China. There are reports that about nine MPs of his party were elected by indirect, or some manner of support from China… China wanted Trudeau to win. So he is now trying to deflect that scandal by focusing on India… The government of Canada is taking unprecedented steps in international diplomacy. So they need to be prepared for reactions and counter-steps from India which will also be unprecedented in international diplomacy…”
He further said, “By withdrawing its diplomats from Canada, India has announced its no-confidence in the Government of Canada.
Gautam Bambawale, former Indian Ambassador to Bhutan, Pakistan and China, attributed the decision to withdraw the High Commissioner and other diplomats from Canada to India’s growing concern that Canada can no longer guarantee the safety of Indian diplomats.
He said, “I think the next steps are very clear that there is always the principle of reciprocity, which is available in international law. So, if we are withdrawing some of our people from Canada, we can insist that the Canadians also withdraw some of their people and we can specify who should be withdrawn… So, in this case, the Government of India is not confident anymore that the Government of Canada can keep our diplomats safe. That is why, they are recalling them to India to ensure their safety and security.”
He also condemned Canada’s statement that the Indian High Commissioner is a person of interest in Hardeep Singh Nijjar issue, and called it a “very serious allegation.”
He said, “The Canadian government has today (October 14) said that the Indian High Commissioner, who is the representative of the Government of India to Canada, is a person of interest in this Nijjar issue. I think that is a very serious allegation and it shows that the level of trust of the Canadian government and the Indian government has fallen very low. India’s government has decided to withdraw from Canada… The fact that we cannot trust their safety, and security in Canada to the Canadian government anymore and that is why we are withdrawing.”
He added, “I think that is the right decision because this matter has gone on too long and I am afraid that the current government of Canada is pushing the relationship to new lows to levels that we have never seen so low ..”
With inputs from agencies
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