 "Amid US-China tariff war, why Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asia tour matters")
The US-China tariff war is on.
And XI Jinping is on a tour of Southeast Asia.
The Chinese president is visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia this week.
He arrived in Hanoi today.
The development comes amid the US and Beijing slapping tariffs on each other of 145 per cent and 125 per cent respectively and Washington levying hefty tariffs on all three Southeast Asian nations.
China has vowed to ‘fight the US to the finish.’
But what do we know about Xi’s trip? Why is everyone watching it so closely?
Let’s take a closer look:
What we know about the trip
As per CGTN, this is Xi’s first trip abroad in 2025.
Xi was received by Vietnam’s President Luong Cuong at the Noi Bai International Airport.
He is in Vietnam today and tomorrow.
He will be in Malaysia and Cambodia from Tuesday to Friday.
This is Xi’s fourth state trip to Vietnam – he previously visited the country in December 2023.
As per BBC, Xi will be meeting a number of top officials in Vietnam including the prime minister and general secretary.
Xi and Vietnamese officials are likely to sign around 40 agreements today.
These include some on cross-border railway connections, two Vietnamese officials told Reuters.
China has been Vietnam’s largest trade partner since 2004.
Hanoi has been Beijing’s biggest trading partner within Asean since 2016.
Trade between the two countries was at $260.65 billion in 2024.
It has remained over $200 billion for the past four years straight.
China has made around $2.5 billion in direct investments into Vietnam.
As per BBC, Xi will leave Vietnam after visiting the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum – the resting place of the famed Communist leader.
Xi, who is also the general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, is visiting Malaysia and Cambodia at the invite of King Sultan Ibrahim and King Norodom Sihamoni respectively.
Xi will attend a state banquet held by King Ibrahim and meet Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
China has been Malaysia’s biggest trading partner for 16 straight years.
Malaysian officials told the Straits Times that as a result of the tariffs , they hope Xi’s visit will result in a deeper economic relationship with China even it its results in “compromising our strategic centrality, because disrupting 40 percent of our economy is an assault on our sovereignty.”
The Straits Times quoted sources as saying that the government will seek pledges that China will not flood its market with cheap goods – which could devastate local industries and businesses.
Trade between the two nations touched all-time high of $212.04 billion in 2024.
Malaysia is already moving closer and closer to China.
Ibrahim in November said, “We view China not just as a leader of the East but as a voice for the Global South, one that champions the interests of the developing world.”
In Cambodia, Xi will meet Prime Minister Hun Manet and his father Hun Sen.
China has been Cambodia’s largest foreign investor and trading partner for years.
The two countries’ free trade agreement – the first ever for Cambodia – has resulted in the trade touching $15.1 billion in 2024.
Xi last visited Cambodia in 2016 and Malaysia in 2013.
Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying by the website, “Neighbouring countries are China’s priority in its diplomacy, and China and Southeast Asian countries are good neighbors, good friends and good partners with a shared future.”
The upcoming visits by the Chinese president bears major importance for China’s relations with Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Lin added.
“It will also inject new impetus into the peace and stability of the region and even the world,” Lin added.
As per BBC, Xi, prior to the trip, penned an editorial saying “there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, and protectionism has no way out.”
Xi, in Vietnam’s Nhan Dhan newspaper extolled “friendly socialist neighbours sharing the same ideals and extensive strategic interests”.
He added that China “should work together with the Global South to uphold the common interests of developing countries”.
Why is everyone watching so closely?
Xi’s trip comes as Trump has imposed some of the highest tariffs during his ‘Liberation Day’ announcements on nations in South Asia.
The US has levied tariffs of 49 per cent, 46 per cent and 24 per cent respectively on Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Experts are calling Xi’s trip as a ‘charm offensive.’
They say the trip comes at an absolutely crucial time for these Southeast Asian nations.
Though the ‘reciprocal tariffs ’ have been paused for 90 days, the base tariffs of 10 per cent remain.
“The fact that Xi Jinping is coming to visit these countries is very significant,” Lynette Ong, professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto, told Bloomberg. “I would read it as Xi’s attempt to form alliances to fight back against the United States in the trade war.”
“Xi’s trip is obviously timed to respond to Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on all countries, particularly as Southeast Asia is China’s largest trade partner,” Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Canberra, told CNA.
Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, told SCMP, “China’s response to the tariffs, especially on the value of its currency and exports, could either alleviate or aggravate the predicaments of Southeast Asia, and a display of genuine magnanimity will go a long way for Beijing.”
Daniel added that Xi would be watching for “overt signals of support” from countries in Southeast Asia.
Daniel said the trip gave Beijing an opportunity if it understands “how to leverage it.”
Some agree – though they think concrete results are not in the offing.
Xi’s “decision to make a tour of Southeast Asia is an important signal,” Susannah Patton of Sydney’s Lowy Institute wrote in Nikkei Asia. “It suggests that China sees now as the right time to advance its interests in each of the three countries, different though they are.”
Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist at OCBC bank, told BBC that China will be eyeing deepening ties with these countries it has “very strong links [to] in terms of both trade and foreign direct investment.”
“In the ongoing trade war, it just makes sense for China to place emphasis on countries it has a good relationship with and South East Asia falls among those,” Venkateswaran added.
Venkateswaran said that though South East Asia will be “careful,” she envisages “a path towards” greater cooperation.
“I think it’s just a tour that will establish relationships… and make sure that friends are friends.”
Alex Holmes from the Economist Intelligence Unit called Xi’s expedition as a “popularity drive” that is “likely to include promises of greater aid and financing.”
“With China now facing 145 per cent tariffs versus around 10 per cent for the rest of Asia, the incentive for Chinese exports to divert through third countries will be stronger than ever,” he added.
Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, now a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said that during China will likely “try to position itself as the responsible leader of the rules-based trade system while painting the US as a rogue nation intent on taking a sledgehammer to trade relationships”.
A piece in The Diplomat noted, “It is unclear whether any substantial agreements come out of the tour, but this is less important than its symbolism and timing, given the damage that the Beijing’s main geopolitical rival in Southeast Asia seems set on inflicting on itself.”
It concluded that all Xi needs to do is not make any major mistakes, avoid shining the spotlight on differences and ensure economic collaboration with Southeast Asia keeps going at the same pace.
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