A water war between US and Mexico is looming. Here's why

The US and Mexico are at loggerheads over water – which could soon break out into war.

The two nations share water from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande under the terms of an 80-year-old treaty.

But with Mexico facing a record heatwave and a water crisis, its politicians say the country cannot live up to the terms of the deal.

Meanwhile, across the border, US farmers complain about being left high and dry.

But what do we know about the crisis?

Let’s take a closer look:

What happened?

First, let’s briefly examine the treaty.

The treaty was signed in 1944.

It stipulates that Mexico is required to transfer water to the United States every five years from the two dams the countries share on the Texas border.

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Mexico is required to send 1.75 million acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande to the US over a five-year cycle.

The US in turn must send 1.5 million acre-feet of water to Mexico from the Colorado River each year, as per CNN.

An acre-foot is defined as enough to spread water across an acre at a depth of 1 foot.

Mexico, thus, roughly has to send the US enough water to meet the needs of 1 million homes every year, as per Washington Post.

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As per CNN, the water Mexico sends is deposited in the Falcon and Amistad Reservoirs.

These two reservoirs, on the border of the countries, deliver water to homes and farms.

In mid-June, both were at the lowest levels in history.

With year four of its cycle on, Mexico has sent just 30 per cent of its expected deliveries.

This is the lowest amount at this point of any four- or five-year cycles since 1992, according to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees the treaty.

The extent of Mexico’s problems cannot be understated.

The country, which has witnessed below-average rainfall and soaring temperatures, is barrelling towards a ‘day Zero.’

Residents of some neighbourhoods have taken to the street to protest the lack of drinking water.

“The impact is reflected in very low levels of many of the dams in northern Mexico and even in the groundwater levels,” Victor Magaña Rueda, a climate scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, told CNN.

The state of Chihuahua has faced drought conditions since February.

“Not a single drop of rain has fallen in more than eight months,” Salvador Alcántar, a congressman in Chihuahua told CNN. “Climate change is here to stay, we have to learn to deal with it.”

Mexico’s national water authority, Conagua, says severe drought has gotten worse and the country is facing the worst drought conditions since 2011.

Rio Grande endangered

Another problem for Mexico is that the Rio Grande, which means ‘large river’ in Spanish, is a shadow of its former self.

The river, one of the longest in North America, has provided drinking water for millions of people and supplies thousands of farmers with water for crops.

But now has been labelled America’s ‘most endangered river,’ as per Down To Earth.

As per The Conversation, both the US and Mexico have been guilty of diverting and overexploiting the river.

So much so that it has become a migration hotspot into the US.

Manuel Morales, secretary of the Mexican section of the IBWC, said Mexico is working to comply with its commitments but that the water shortage is due to climate change and the treaty allows more time to deliver water in the event of extraordinary drought.

But farmers across the border say they are in big trouble too – and that they can’t wait.

Texas farm groups are warning of a disastrous season ahead for citrus and sugar.

Texas’s half-billion-dollar citrus industry is heavily dependent on water from Mexico, especially with drought conditions growing more severe in the region, said Dale Murden, president of the industry group Texas Citrus Mutual.

“You can’t count completely on rainfall. It’s nice when it happens, but you need to  control the water on the tree,” he said.

Texas is the third-largest citrus state behind California and Florida.

“Farmers in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas are either out of water or running out of water quickly,” farmer Brian Jones, a member of the Texas Farm Bureau told CNN.

The last sugar mill in Texas has shut down due to the lack of water, at a time of low US supplies and high prices for the sweetener.

“The sugar industry is lost to Texas and will never return,” Jones told CNN.

“This water is impacting not only the farmers, but it’s impacting the employment of citizens within our community,” US Representative from Texas Monica De La Cruz told Reuters.

“We pray that there is a chance that Mexico will be motivated to make the water deliveries that they owe us,” Cruz told Washington Post.

She added that officials have been “pulling every lever possible to ensure that Mexico knows this is an important topic not only for our district but for all of America.”

For Texas sugarcane farmers, the outlook this season is “complete and absolute despair,” said Sean Brashear, president and CEO of Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers.

The group in February shut its sugar mill in Santa Rosa, Texas, after 51 years of operation due to the lack of water from Mexico.

De La Cruz and three other members of Texas’ Congressional delegation met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 11 to ask the State Department to do more to enforce the treaty.

According to Washington Post, Texas leaders have even asked Congress to pause aid to Mexico.

Blinken on the call committed to speaking with Mexican officials about the issue, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

A state department spokesperson said the agency is closely following the water shortages and has urged Mexico to sign a revised water agreement.

US IBWC spokesperson Frank Fisher said commission officials from both countries have met several times since 2023 to renegotiate aspects of the treaty in hopes of increasing reliability.

Both countries have had agricultural water shortages in recent decades, Fisher said.

What do experts say?

That there’s only so much that can be done.

Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, told CNN people have become used to a certain amount of water.

“And once you have that reliance, it becomes extremely painful to change,” she told CNN.

Maria Elena Giner, the US commissioner of the International Boundary and Water Commission, told the outlet.

“We’ve asked Mexico for a plan on how they’re going to meet their deficit right now.”

But she admitted  “if there’s no water to distribute, there’s nothing we can do."

Mexico’s leaders say they are powerless.

“If there is no water, what can we realistically be expected to pay with? No-one can be forced to give away what they don’t have,” Alcántar said.

With inputs from agencies