90 seconds to destruction: What is the Doomsday clock and what it says for 2024?

Tick tock, tick tock, boom! That’s the Doomsday Clock for you, which shows how symbolically close the world is to nuclear Armageddon. And on Tuesday, experts who maintain the ominous Doomsday Clock said that humanity is still as close as ever to global catastrophe, which could involve nuclear war, climate change, or maybe even artificial intelligence. They, however, kept the clock at 90 seconds to midnight — the closest to midnight the clock has ever been. But what exactly is this Doomsday Clock? When has the time on the clock been changed before? And how close are we to Armageddon? We explain. What’s the Doomsday Clock? The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic timepiece showing how close the world is to ending. Midnight marks the theoretical point of annihilation. The clock came into existence in 1947 in response to the threat of nuclear war and was the creation of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based nonprofit organisation. Interestingly, the Bulletin was founded by Albert Einstein, J Robert Oppenheimer , Eugene Rabinowitch and other scientists from the University of Chicago in 1945 who were involved in the Manhattan Project – the US undertaking that produced the world’s first nuclear weapon. As per the Bulletin’s website, the Doomsday Clock is a “design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet.” [caption id=“attachment_13649702” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The Doomsday clock was first established in 1947, by members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. File image/Reuters[/caption] The clock has been ticking away for the past 77 years, never stopping. At the start of the clock’s ticking, the Bulletin had set it at seven minutes from midnight and since then it has been adjusted each year by experts on the board, plus academic colleagues and the Bulletins sponsors - which include 13 Nobel laureates —based on the threats facing the world. Has the clock’s timing been moved? Since the clock has come into being, the bulletin’s team has moved the clock’s time ahead or behind according to how close the scientists believe the human race is to total destruction. Some years the time changes, and some years it doesn’t. In 1947, when the clock debuted for the first time, it was set at 17 minutes to midnight. Two years later, when the Soviet Union carried out its first nuclear test, scientists changed the clock’s time, moving it to nine minutes to midnight. And in 1953, when the United States tested the hydrogen bomb, it further moved to five minutes to midnight. The farthest the world has been from the theoretical Armageddon was in 1991 when it was set to 17 minutes from the dreaded 12 o’clock position following the fall of the Soviet Union and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. [caption id=“attachment_13649712” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Recent changes being made to the Doomsday Clock. Image Courtesy: thebulletin.org[/caption] In recent times, the Doomsday Clock has been closer to the five-minute to 12 mark. For instance, in 2012, it was set at five minutes to midnight. In 2015, that was reset to three minutes to midnight and in 2020 — the year COVID-19 struck the world — it moved forward to 100 seconds to midnight. Last year, in 2023, the Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to midnight. The scientists had then said that its setting reflects a world in which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived fears of nuclear war. The war was largely but not exclusively the reason for the hands moving forward. What the clock says for 2024? This year, the scientists have maintained the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight, the same as last year, stating that “humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger”. The bulletin, in a statement said, “Our decision should not be taken as a sign that the international security situation has eased. Instead, leaders and citizens around the world should take this statement as a stark warning and respond urgently, as if today were the most dangerous moment in modern history. Because it may well be.” Speaking of the threats humanity faces, the scientists said that the Russia-Ukraine war sees no sign of ending and the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia continues to cast a shadow. Moreover, nuclear spending programs in the three largest nuclear powers — China, Russia , and the United States — threaten to trigger a three-way nuclear arms race as the world’s arms control architecture collapses. [caption id=“attachment_13649732” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Palestinians walk through destruction in Gaza City. Now over 100 days old, the latest Israel-Hamas war is by far the longest, bloodiest, and most destructive conflict between the bitter enemies. File image/AP[/caption] And that’s not all. The bulletin noted that “the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has the potential to escalate into a wider Middle Eastern conflict that could pose unpredictable threats, regionally and globally.” Furthermore, climate change has also contributed to the world’s destruction, noted the scientists. And perhaps the biggest threat and factor at keeping the clock at 90 seconds to midnight has been the rise of Artificial Intelligence . As the scientists stated, “AI has great potential to magnify disinformation and corrupt the information environment on which democracy depends. AI-enabled disinformation efforts could be a factor that prevents the world from dealing effectively with nuclear risks, pandemics, and climate change. [caption id=“attachment_13649742” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Scientists behind the Doomsday clock have stated that AI is one of the biggest threats for 2024. File image/Reuters[/caption] “Military uses of AI are accelerating. Extensive use of AI is already occurring in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, simulation, and training. Of particular concern are lethal autonomous weapons, which identify and destroy targets without human intervention. Decisions to put AI in control of important physical systems — in particular, nuclear weapons — could indeed pose a direct existential threat to humanity.” Can we change back the clock? But for those who are readying for doom and gloom, here’s a sliver of hope. Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin was quoted as telling CNN, “We at the Bulletin believe that because humans created these threats, we can reduce them.” Moreover, the bulletin said that it’s possible, and it has happened before. But for it to happen, the bulletin recommends that “three of the world’s leading powers – the US, China and Russia” start a serious dialogue. “They have the capacity to pull the world back from the brink of catastrophe. They should do so, with clarity and courage, and without delay,” the statement said. And even though the Doomsday Clock isn’t perfect, it’s a good sign of things to come, and something we should keep in mind. With inputs from agencies