7,000 cases a day: How deadly is the pneumonia outbreak in China?

Three years after the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, China was ready to enjoy its first quiet winter. But it appears that the neighbouring country is dealing with yet another medical emergency. A mysterious pneumonia outbreak is sweeping across Chinese schools, sending a sharp increase in the number of children admitted to hospitals. Since mid-October, the nation has reported thousands of cases of “influenza-like illness,” overwhelming the paediatric hospitals in Beijing and Liaoning province. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been pressing China to provide more details on the outbreak and look for improved response mechanisms as a result of the unexpected spike. Let’s take a closer look. The rise in pneumonia cases in China On 13 November, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) at a press conference reported an increase in respiratory diseases, particularly influenza, mycoplasma pneumonia – a common bacterial infection affecting younger children – and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This week, the state-run China National Radio stated 7,000 is the average daily patient load at the Beijing Children’s Hospital has reported, surpassing the hospital’s capacity. As per another report by Taiwanese news website FTV News, children had symptoms of high fever and inflammation of the lungs but no cough. “The situation in Liaoning province is also serious. The lobby of Dalian Children’s Hospital is full of sick children receiving intravenous drips. There are also queues of patients at the traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and the central hospitals,” it added.

Fears of a potential pandemic have been sparked nationwide by this outbreak. According to Al Jazeera, schools in Beijing are also reporting high absenteeism rates. In extreme cases, they even cancel lessons for a minimum of one week if a pupil is sick, and they advise parents to exercise additional caution. In addition, health officials fear that winter would make the diseases more difficult to spread after China’s national weather agency issued a warning that the nation’s already-cold temperatures will drop significantly further starting on Thursday. Is this another pandemic? Leading scientists urged caution over fears of another pandemic on Thursday after the World Health Organization requested more information from China on a rise of respiratory illnesses and pneumonia clusters among children, reported Reuters. “We have to be careful,” said Marion Koopmans, a Dutch virologist who advised the WHO on COVID-19. “We really need more information, particularly diagnostic information.” Echoing the first-ever notice of COVID-19 pandemic, the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED), a surveillance system that conducts global reporting of infectious disease outbreaks, first published an alert on Tuesday about the “undiagnosed pneumonia” among children in China. The standard wording of the alert echoed the first-ever notice about what would become COVID-19, sent on 30 December 2019: “Undiagnosed pneumonia - China (Hubei).” As per the report, infections have proliferated in Beijing and Liaoning, the city in the country’s northeast. The cities are about 800 kilometres (500 miles) apart. [caption id=“attachment_13426882” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A man pushes a child covered in blanket in a wheelchair outside a children’s hospital in Beijing, China. Reuters[/caption] In the editor’s note, ProMed concluded, “This report suggests a widespread outbreak of an undiagnosed respiratory illness … It is not at all clear when this outbreak started as it would be unusual for so many children to be affected so quickly.” “It is too early to project whether this could be another pandemic…” it added. Scientists said the similarity of the two alerts had stirred as yet unfounded worries the surge may be caused by another emerging pathogen that could spark a pandemic. The report from ProMED drew the attention of the WHO, who on Wednesday asked China to release details on the recent outbreak, including “additional epidemiologic and clinical information, as well as laboratory results from these reported clusters among children.” Notably, the global health agency always requests information from countries when undiagnosed or unknown diseases are reported, which happens fairly regularly. However, it does not always put out a press release about doing so, as it did on Wednesday. [caption id=“attachment_13420762” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Hospitals in China are overwhelmed as children are being admitted with pneumonia. Representational picture/Reuters[/caption] Brian McCloskey, a public health expert who also advised WHO on the pandemic, said, “What we are seeing is WHO’s International Health Regulations system in action”, referring to the rules governing how countries work with WHO on potential outbreaks. “I am not going to push the pandemic panic button on the basis of what we know so far, but I will be very keen to see the response to WHO from China and see the WHO’s assessment following that,” he said. Both the WHO and China have faced questions over transparency during the early days of COVID. WHO has also since criticised China for withholding data about infections and deaths when it lifted its “zero-COVID” measures, as well as about the origins of the pandemic. Following the World Health Organization’s request, a report by the state-run news agency Xinhua stated that the nation’s health commission authorities were closely monitoring the diagnosis and treatment of paediatric respiratory patients. Later on Thursday, the global health agency said in a statement that China has not detected any “unusual or novel pathogens,” and that the increase in respiratory illnesses spreading in the north of the country was due to “multiple known pathogens.” [caption id=“attachment_13426892” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A child wearing mask passes by a children’s hospital in Beijing. AP[/caption] Since October, northern China has reported an “increase in influenza-like illness” compared to the same period over the past three years,” the WHO said, adding, “Some of these increases are earlier in the season than historically experienced, but not unexpected given the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, as similarly experienced in other countries.” The WHO added that it is “closely monitoring the situation and is in close contact with national authorities in China.” The UK Health Security agency (UKHSA) said that it was closely monitoring the situation. China says… In China, there has been a lot of recent coverage of a rise in respiratory illnesses, including among children. Chinese health commission has attributed the rise in cases to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. Along with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, the authorities named mycoplasma as one of the circulating infections. They have stated that strengthening health systems’ capabilities and stepping up disease surveillance are vital. People have been urged to continue COVID-19 pandemic-era practises such frequent hand washing, mask wear, and social separation by the WHO and medical staff in the nation led by Xi Jinping. [caption id=“attachment_13426912” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A child in a wheelchair holds up a bag from a children’s hospital radiology department in Beijing. AP[/caption] The possible reason for the outbreak Health experts have also agreed that the outbreak could be similar to the “lockdown exit wave” that was witnessed in countries like the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States and New Zealand. After their “zero-COVID” limitations were loosened, countries like Australia and New Zealand also saw similar spikes in respiratory illnesses; last year, the United States saw its own “tripledemic” of respiratory viruses, according to NBC News. China is probably experiencing something similar, says University of Hong Kong virologist Jin Dong-yan. “We don’t think there is a major issue there or there is some unknown disease or something that is hidden. We have no evidence for that,” he told NBC News in a phone interview Thursday. Notably, China is experiencing its first complete flu season since the COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed, a move that reduced the risk of contracting multiple infections for three years for a large number of individuals. In a statement posted on X, Francois Belloux, director of University College London’s Genetic Institute, said that China may be repaying an “immunity debt” after their lengthy lockdown, “which must have drastically reduced the circulation of respiratory bugs and hence decreased immunity to endemic bugs.” Medical expert Dr. Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia in Britain disputed that a novel illness was the cause of the infection surge. According to ABC news, he said in a statement, “If it was (a new disease), I would expect to see many more infections in adults. The few infections reported in adults suggest existing immunity from a prior exposure.” With inputs from agencies