 "In the upcoming elections, around 97 crore people are eligible to cast votes. PTI")
The dates of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were announced on Saturday by the Election Commission.
The Lok Sabha polls will take place in seven phases between 19 April and 1 June. The counting will be held on 4 June.
The first phase will be held on 19 April, the second phase on 26 April, the third phase on 7 May, the fourth phase on 13 May, the fifth phase on 20 May, sixth phase on 25 May and the seventh phase on 1 June.
Four states — Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha — will also hold simultaneous Assembly elections. Polls will be held in Andhra Pradesh on 13 May and Arunachal and Sikkim on 19 April. The Election Commission announced on Saturday that Odisha will vote for a 224-member state assembly poll alongside the 21 Lok Sabha seats in four phases on 13, 20, 25 May and 1 June.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA is aiming to clinch a third term. The Opposition, under the INDIA bloc, is hoping to give it a fight.
The PM has set a target of over 400 seats for the NDA. Will it get there? Will the INDIA alliance make a dent in its rival’s scorecard? Here’s what opinion polls predict.
Let’s take a look.
NDA vote share projection
News18 poll
According to the results of the mega News18 opinion poll, the majority of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the ruling party, suggesting that PM Modi and the BJP will likely win a third term in office.
Impact Shorts
View AllIn the approaching general elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is poised to win a hattrick of terms. The poll predicts that the NDA would win 411 Lok Sabha seats, much above the 400 targets that the Prime Minister, using the catchphrase “Abki baar 400 paar,” set for the ruling coalition. In the next elections, the NDA is predicted to receive 48 per cent of the vote.
In 1984, the Congress Party secured 411 seats out of the 542 Lok Sabha seats, marking the last time a party in the nation won over 400 seats, according to CNN-News18.
According to the survey, the BJP would increase its total number of seats in partnerships to 350, and the other NDA partners would add 61 seats. The BJP secured 303 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the NDA secured 353.
ABP News-CVoter poll
In addition, an extensive opinion survey carried out by ABP News and CVoter before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections indicates that the BJP’s majority in the nation is still intact.
According to the survey results, the NDA is predicted to win 366 seats in the Lok Sabha and a dominant lead with a vote share of 45.9 per cent.
The poll suggests there has been a significant shift in the number of votes cast since the Lok Sabha results of 2019. The BJP has benefited from a 3.08 per cent increase in votes.
Zee News-MATRIZE poll
According to a MATRIZE opinion survey for ZEE NEWS, the NDA will defeat the INDIA alliance by securing 390 seats.
INDIA block and other parties
News18 poll
According to the results of the News18 opinion survey, the Congress-led INDIA group is expected to gain 105 seats with a 32 per cent vote share, which is more than the 91 seats it obtained in 2019 under its former guise as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
According to the findings of the opinion polls, other parties are predicted to win 27 seats.
The Congress will win 49 seats in coalitions, which is fewer than its 52 seats total in 2019. Other INDIA bloc members will chip in with 56 seats.
ABP News-CVoter poll
The ABP News-CVoter opinion poll projects that the INDIA bloc will win 156 seats and 39 per cent of the total votes share. Additionally, according to the poll, the INDIA coalition will see a 2.5 per cent increase in votes from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
On the other hand, the Congress’s prospects have only slightly improved. The party is expected to gain 59 seats, a bit higher than 52 seats in 2019, and its vote share will increase from 19.5 per cent to 20 per cent from 2019 to 2024. It will be difficult for the party to convert its vote share into a sizable number of seats.
Due to alliances with major regional parties like the DMK, it performs well in some states, such as Tamil Nadu, but nationally, it finds it difficult to match the BJP’s appeal.
Zee News-MATRIZE poll
Based on opinions from around 113,848 people across 543 Lok Sabha seats, the ZEE News-MATRIZE Lok Sabha Elections final opinion poll projects the Congress-led INDIA alliance to win 96 seats.
Modi vs Rahul
News18 poll
In terms of leadership abilities, Narendra Modi beat Rahul Gandhi easily. A staggering 73 per cent of respondents to a News18 poll stated they thought the PM was honest. In a similar vein, 69 per cent of respondents thought he worked hard. Additionally, 71 per cent of respondents thought that PM Modi cared about individuals just like them, demonstrating his strong public appeal. Furthermore, 67 per cent said he was a capable leader.
In contrast, 27 per cent of respondents thought Rahul Gandhi was a more honest Congress leader, and 31 per cent thought he worked harder. Gandhi has not yet demonstrated his ability to connect with the public; only 29 per cent of people think he does.
In addition, PM Modi continues to gain the public’s trust and is still a step ahead of the others in addressing crises.
His highest score was 58 when it came to boosting employment chances. He even scored 59 on the topic of controlling inflation, far higher than Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, or Arvind Kejriwal.
ABP News-CVoter poll
When it came to the choice of PM, most respondents from a number of states, including Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Bihar, preferred Modi over Gandhi.
In Bihar, for example, 62 per cent of respondents were satisfied with Modi, compared to 32 per cent with Gandhi. Similarly, compared to 23 per cent and 29 per cent for Gandhi, 71 per cent and 59 per cent of people in Delhi and Maharashtra, respectively, want to see Modi return as prime minister.
The majority of respondents expressed satisfaction with PM Modi’s and the Central government’s performance.
Zee News-MATRIZE poll
About 23 per cent of respondents thought the Congress MP could take on the Prime Minister, even though the Modi vs. Gandhi factor is not discussed in this survey.
The poll cites several factors, including nationalism, the welfare programmes he implemented, the construction of the Ram Temple, and his perfect reputation, as the main drivers of Modi’s popularity.
Nine per cent of respondents thought Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra would have a significant positive impact, while 22 per cent thought it would have an average positive impact.
The big states
News18 poll
The News18 survey, with more than a lakh participants from 518 Lok Sabha seats in 21 states, projects that the BJP-led NDA will win Karnataka and the Hindi heartland, which includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Additionally, the numbers of Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh would also sharply increase.
The poll indicates a notable change in the BJP’s outlook: it projects the party to gain five seats in Tamil Nadu, two in Kerala, and increase its representation in West Bengal to 25 seats, which is marginally more than it did in the 2019 elections.
The poll’s key findings include the possibility of BJP wins in Madhya Pradesh (28 seats), Uttar Pradesh (77 seats), Bihar (38 seats), Jharkhand (12 seats), Karnataka (25 seats), and Gujarat (PM Modi’s home state), where the party would easily win all 26 seats.
The NDA is predicted to win comfortably in Maharashtra, a crucial battleground state, possibly taking 41 of 48 seats, with the opposition likely to take the other seven seats.
In states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, regional parties are still powerful.
The Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, and the DMK, two powerful regional parties, are present in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where the INDIA alliance is expected to win the most number of seats.
The TMC is predicted to win 17 seats in West Bengal, perhaps shutting out the Congress. According to the News18 survey, the DMK-Congress combine is still a strong contender in Tamil Nadu and is predicted to win about 30 of the 39 seats.
ABP News-CVoter poll
The ABP News-CVoter survey predicts that the BJP-led NDA would win 74 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, with a notable increase in the vote share over the previous general elections.
The BJP is expected to repeat its 2019 performance in West Bengal, with 19 seats predicted, one more than the previous time, while the DMK is predicted to win 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. In Bengal, the ruling TMC is expected to win 23 seats.
The NDA, which is made up of the TDP and JSP, is expected to win 17 seats overall, leaving three seats for the BJP in Andhra Pradesh. In Odisha, BJD, which is running as an NDA constituent, the party could win 11 seats.
According to the poll, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to have a considerable impact on the seat share. Six seats are predicted for the party by the ABP News poll.
The poll predicts a competitive electoral fight in Maharashtra, with the NDA projected to secure 28 seats, while its Opposition, the UPA, expected to get 20 seats.
Zee News-MATRIZE poll
According to the poll, the BJP-led NDA will take a lead over the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra, with 48 seats and 61 per cent of vote share, in Gujarat with all 26 seats, 55 per cent in Delhi, 78 seats in Uttar Pradesh, one seat in Tamil Nadu, 13 seats in Andhra Pradesh, five seats for BJP in Telangana, 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 17 seats in West Bengal, and 23 seats in Karnataka.
On the other hand, the INDIA alliance could win three seats in Maharashtra, two seats in Uttar Pradesh, 20 seats in Kerala, one seat in Jharkhand, one seat in Madhya Pradesh, five seats for Congress in Karnataka.
In Telangana, Congress is likely to win nine seats, while in Bengal, TMC is likely to secure 24 seats.
With inputs from agencies
Vibhuti is on the Explainers team at Firstpost. She focuses on global and Indian affairs. She enjoys dividing her free time between travelling, reading, and doing research.