250 out of 403: It’s a landslide victory for SP, says CSDS survey

Here’s one seat projection that is certain to throw all pre-poll calculations and theories of caste and communal voting in Uttar Pradesh into a tailspin. The Samajwadi Party is headed for a landslide victory, according to a CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted by CSDS. The survey gives 232 to 250 seats to the SP, 65-79 seats to the BSP, 36-44 seats to the Congress-RLD combine and 28-38 seats to the BJP. If the actual results go according to this prediction, then it will be biggest electoral victory for any party in the last 20 years. In 2007, Mayawati-led BSP had sprung a surprise on pollsters by securing 206 of the 403 assembly seats. [caption id=“attachment_234802” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“The survey puts the vote share of the SP at 34 percent, a clear 10 percent ahead of its closest rival. PTI”]  [/caption] In the previous election, Mayawati had won convincingly by riding on the anti-SP wave. The tides have turned this time. The Mulayam Singh-led party appears to have made electoral capital of the misgovernance and corruption under the BSP. The seat projection shows that the goodwill for Rahul Gandhi has not translated into votes — in fact, he has been rejected emphatically by the electorate. The BJP has dipped in relevance. Both the parties, as predicted by most pre-poll analyses, are locked in a fight for the third slot. The survey puts the vote share of the SP at 34 percent, a clear 10 percent ahead of its closest rival, the BSP. The BSP had secured 30 percent of votes in 2007. This is unprecedented in a state known to throw up fractured verdicts. The electorate here, according to conventional understanding, is deeply divided along caste, community and religious lines and does not have the ability to comprehend broader issues like development. However, the projection, if accurate, could bury that impression once for ever. The BJP’s vote share, according to the survey, shrinks from 14 percent from 17 in 2007. The Congress vote share is down too — to 12 percent from 13 percent. It suggests both the national parties have lost the plot in UP and would find difficult to regain ground in state. Both the parties experimented hard with caste politics this time. The result, as the survey reveals, has been disastrous. If the SP forms the government on its own then the Congress loses the vital advantage of supporting a government here to leverage it to its benefit at the Centre. The party expected to have some kind of a role in the government-formation so that it could negotiate from a position of strength with the ruling party in UP. It will have to re-think its strategy now. The survey result raises serious questions on Rahul Gandhi’s ability to win elections for the party. Will he be able to lead the Congress to a good performance in 2014? If the survey’s prediction comes accurate, many in the party will doubt his potential to be the party’s leader in the next general elections, let alone be the prime minister. But all this for now are in the territory of speculation. It all depends on how the actual result pans out. Keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow.