Shiv Sena vs MNS war of words has only begun: 5 reasons why

Editor’s note: This version of the article was slightly edited to correct an error. The redoubtable Thackeray brothers are at it again. Weeks before elections to the Lok Sabha, Uddhav has called Raj a traitor, prompting the latter to respond with a challenge, promising to display his “aukaat” at the hustings. This when it’s not even clear how many seats Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is set to contest. One thing is amply clear – the decibel levels on this ever-engaging contest between the late Bal Thackeray’s son and nephew will continue to rise. Here are five reasons why this shouting match is not ending soon. [caption id=“attachment_146193” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Raj and Uddhav at Bal Thackeray’s funeral. AFP[/caption] 1. The two are sparring, but they’re not really at war yet. The real fight for both, the Shiv Sena and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, is scheduled for October, when Maharashtra will elect a new Legislative Assembly. Neither party has big stakes in the Lok Sabha, not even the Shiv Sena which hopes to retain its double-digit strength in Parliament. The Sena may be the BJP’s oldest ally in the NDA, but party is just not a force to contend with in Delhi or at the national level. It is not expecting a phalanx of its leaders in a potential Modi Cabinet. It does not take and defend strong stands on national issues. It barely even manages to get its concerns on Mumbai and Maharashtra some air-time at the national level. The situation will be very different in October. The MNS has 13 MLAs in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly and is hoping to multiply that tally. The Sena has 45 MLAs, its lowest ebb since 1990, and will be looking to desperately defend that tally. 2. For now, the Sena’s Lok Sabha tally matters more to the BJP than to itself. The Shiv Sena has claimed that relations with the BJP are better than ever. This is only polite courtesy or, at best, a strategic and timely olive branch. Uddhav Thackeray knows only too well that the BJP has a one-point agenda right now, and that is to reach the 272-mark in Lok Sabha. The Muthalik, Sabir Ali and Sriramulu episodes should be ample indication of that, and Nitin Gadkari’s overtures to the MNS would be seen in that light as well. But if, as speculation is rife, the BJP at some later stage jettisons the Shiv Sena in favour of the younger, more aggressive MNS, about 30 MLAs for the MNS could give the young party a big role in governing Maharashtra. 3. This is the first major election since Balasaheb’s demise. There is a legacy to be claimed. Much of the posturing of the two brothers is just that – for effect. Notice how the usually genteel and urbane Uddhav has entered the maidan, sleeves rolled up, calling his brother a “gaddaar” and defining how a true Shiv Sainik would not change his flag or his colours. Rabble rousing is an integral part of both Senas’ style, and Uddhav has shown he is perfectly capable of donning that hat, having just made a strident speech about opposing only “anti-national Muslims”. 4. There is also a support base to be consolidated. The two cousins share the same core support base of voters, the middle class Maharashtrian, the aam manoos, as it were. But the middle class Maharashtrian vote is no monolith any longer, and the Sena and the MNS will woo every segment of this support base aggressively over the next six months. The younger generation of Marathi-speaking voters may not subscribe to chauvinism per se, but couched in the context of job losses and opportunities denied to them in an increasingly crowded competitive space, this sons of the soil platform remains, its arms open for either of the Senas to take ownership of its divisive agenda. Each party wants to claim the position of the true promoter of the Marathi manoos. NCP wanted join the NDA but the Sena’s opposition stopped them, Uddhav has claimed, inviting ridicule from Sharad Pawar. Raj has countered Nitin Gadkari’s comments on the “understanding” he attempted hammer out with the MNS by saying the BJP was angling for a pro-poll alliance. 5. For the MNS, it’s sometimes Advantage Cong, sometimes not.  The MNS has the unique position of playing multiple roles in Maharashtra, taking a large chunk out of Marathi votes to the Congress’s advantage sometimes, not fielding candidates elsewhere to likely advantage of the BJP. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, MNS candidates gifted victory to Congress-NCP candidates in Maharashtra. Barring two, each of its candidates polled over 1,00,000 votes, averaging in the vicinity of 1,50,000. Its Nashik candidate won over 2,00,000 votes. In each case, the Marathi vote or the anti-Congress vote was fractured, decisively in favour of the Congress. The MNS candidates will now play different roles, especially given that the party has not grown as exponentially as once expected. If it, as expected, does not field candidates against BJP candidates with a good chance of winning, despite the fact that MNS candidates in these constituencies polled over 1,00,000 votes in 2009, the hows and whys of such a strategy will be no secret. That leaves behind voters with a certainty, that the Sena Vs Sena fireworks will continue. And with a doubt, just how do voters decipher the strategy of the MNS fielding candidates against the NDA who will then support Modi?