Poll shows Delhi voter pissed off with Kejriwal, Cong gains

The latest ABP-Nielsen pre-poll survey shows that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may be slipping in Delhi, at least during the parliamentary polls where AAP is not reckoned to be a crucial player, despite high-profile spats with BJP leader Narendra Modi in Gujarat and Varanasi. The poll shows a consistent drop in AAP’s popular vote over the last three months, says a report in Business Standard today (28 March). From a vote share of 55 percent in January, it fell to 49 percent in February and is now down to 34 percent in Delhi. The January peak came after AAP’s unexpected performance in the Delhi polls and initial efforts at forming a clean government. The February decline shows the beginning of voter disenchantment with what AAP actually ended up doing when in government – and giving it up halfway in pursuit of bigger goals. [caption id=“attachment_1454717” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Arvind Kejriwal. Reuters.[/caption] The March nadir now hit by AAP may reflect two things: the increasing heartburn within AAP on ticket distribution, and a sense of abandonment of the Delhi voter by Arvind Kejriwal. For the last two months, Kejriwal has shifted his focus away from Delhi. He now thinks his life’s mission is to trip Narendra Modi. Where does the Delhi voter fit into this scheme of things? It is entirely understandable that the Delhi voter is miffed with Kejriwal. After hoisting him on their shoulders, the man hasn’t spoken a word about what he plans to do for her in case he returns to power after the next assembly elections. After he quit, the assembly has been in suspended animation. While Kejriwal is busy questioning Modi on whether he will desert Varanasi or Vadodara and why the latter is fighting from two seats, the irony has not hit home: he is, after all, a Delhi MLA, and is contesting the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat. Maybe he should tell the Delhi voter what he will do if he wins Varanasi, since he is claiming he will win there, too against Modi. The ABP-Nielsen poll, not surprisingly, shows both BJP and Congress improving their positions in Delhi ahead of the Lok Sabha poll. It now predicts at least one seat for the Congress in Delhi, with BJP and AAP splitting the other six half-half. The trend in away from AAP. The reason for the resurgence of the two national parties in a national election is not surprising. In earlier polls, voters for Kejriwal did indicate that they would vote for Modi in the Lok Sabha elections. The latest Nielsen poll shows that the BJP’s vote share has improved from 29 percent in January to 30 percent in February and to 32 percent in March. The Congress’ rise has been more dramatic: it has risen from 9 percent in January, to 14 percent in February and now has doubled to 28 percent. This increase clearly shows two things: AAP and Congress are fighting for the same voter base. The Congress’ rise is mirrored in the AAP’s decline. Secondly, if the Delhi voter is consciously voting to elect a national government, there could be a further erosion of the AAP vote, towards both Congress and BJP this time. Whether the Congress or BJP will gain more from AAP’s slipping fortunes remains to be seen. It will depend on whether the Delhi voter thinks she is voting against the central government or is voting against AAP’s indifferent performance in Delhi. Either way, the signal is that both BJP and Congress should be redoubling efforts in Delhi, since the field is now wide open. For AAP and Kejriwal, the lesson is clear: don’t forget the voter who got you national prominence in the first place. Kejriwal’s fast forward to national fame may be coming at the cost of Delhi – and possibly Haryana too, where Yogendra Yadav is not finding the going easy. The NDTV opinion poll in March gave the NDA 7 seats and the UPA three in Haryana. AAP: zero. Kejriwal may be hogging the limelight in Varanasi, but in trying to scale up too soon, he may be cutting the branch he is sitting on in Delhi. The voter there is unhappy with him.