BJP no longer a favourite among punters: Satta market bets big on Kejriwal

New Delhi: The satta market may not  be an acceptable authority on predicting polls, but it does not go too off the mark when its comes to the job. If the latest trend in the illegal and shadowy betting market is anything to go by, then the BJP is no more the favourite among punters. The AAP has replaced it. The bookies have priced AAP the lowest at Rs 2.25 and the BJP at Rs 2.40 as a close second. The Congress at Rs 3.40 is the least likely to win Delhi polls and therefore, the most risky to bet on, said a city-based bookie on condition of anonymity. “The lower a political party was priced, the most favoured it was to win. It means, betting on it will have a lower risk therefore the profits will also be lower,” he explained. “If someone bets Rs 1 lakh on AAP, he or she will get Rs 2.25 lakh. The same amount will fetch the person Rs 2.4 lakh if it is bet on the BJP and Rs 3.4 lakh on the Congress,” he said, adding that the “returns depend on the risk you take. People place several bets so that they can recover money they lose on one bet from the other”. According to another bookie, the trend suddenly changed on Thursday evening, when the campaign for the February 7 polls came to an end. “Now, we expect the AAP’s tally between 35-41 in the 70-member assembly. Earlier, we had predicted it to stand around 20,” he added. When asked about  BJP, he said, “The party may struggle to reach the half way mark of 35. Before Thursday, it was being predicted in the market that the BJP will easily manage 46 seats,” he said and added, “The predictions for Congress to win 4-6 seats still remains the same.” [caption id=“attachment_2081619” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. PTI[/caption] The changes are being witnessed even though various opinion polls found  BJP ahead in the race. Surveys conducted by IBN 7-Data Mineria, Zee-Taleem Research Foundation (TRF), The Week-IMBR and India TV-C Voter predicted 36 seats for the BJP. Interestingly, the bookies are also trying their luck on candidates. BJP’s chief ministerial nominee Kiran Bedi is lagging behind in the betting race against AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal, with 33% people  voting in favour of the former while 45% for the latter. While both the chief ministerial candidates are expected to win from their constituencies, t punters predict a bigger victory margin for Kejriwal. “A bet of Rs 1 lakh on Kejriwal’s victory will yield a return of just Rs 5,000. A loss would fetch Rs 16 lakh. A correct bet of Rs 1 lakh on Bedi’s win will fetch the bettor Rs 10,000, and her loss, Rs 10 lakh,” said a third bookie. He further said despite AAP’s better prospects, BJP activists and supporters are making heavy bets in favour of their party. “However, the market’s trends suggest that there is a constant rise in AAP chances of getting the majority and therefore, people are moving towards it,” he said. A person who places the bets is called a punter while the one who receives them is called a bookie. Betting is a criminal and non-bailable offence in India. It can attract a jail term of seven years and more if proven guilty of the crime. According to the Delhi police, there are around 30 active bookies from areas like Geeta Colony and Seelampur in East Delhi, Chandni Chowk and Nabi Karim in Old Delhi and Mehrauli and Ambedkar Nagar in South Delhi. “They are under our surveillance. We are alert and keeping a hawk eye on their activities. If anyone is found indulging in betting activity, action would be taken,” Delhi Police Special Commissioner (Law and Order) Deepak Mishra told Firstpost. The network of bookies and punters operate from the National Capital Region (NCR) as well. “Some people operate from the NCR and we are monitoring them,” he said.