WPI-based inflation rises to 2.03% in January on non-food manufactured items, food prices ease
ICRA principal economist Aditi Nayar said a deeper disinflation in primary food articles helped to cushion the impact of the sharp rise in core inflation, which reached a 27-month high of 5.1 percent in January
New Delhi: The wholesale price-based inflation rose sharply to 2.03 percent in January on costlier non-food manufactured items and experts are projecting further uptick in the rate of price rise in the next few months.
The WPI inflation was 1.22 percent in December, 2020 and 3.52 percent in January last year.
While food articles saw softening in inflation, the sharp rise in the WPI inflation in January was led by manufactured non-food products, fuel and power, and crude petroleum and natural gas, data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed on Monday.
Food inflation in January stood at (-) 2.8 percent, against (-) 1.11 percent in the previous month. In vegetables and potatoes, it was (-) 20.82 percent and 22.04 percent respectively.
Core inflation rose to a 27-month high of 5.1 percent in January 2021.
In non-food articles, inflation was higher at 4.16 percent, while in the fuel and power basket it was (-) 4.78 percent during the month under review.
ICRA principal economist Aditi Nayar said a deeper disinflation in primary food articles helped to cushion the impact of the sharp rise in core inflation.
Rising demand and strengthening pricing power will make core inflation rise further to as much as 7-7.5 percent during April-June quarter, according to ICRA.
"... the headline WPI inflation is set to record large upticks over the course of the next few months. We now expect the WPI inflation to average 5-5.5 per cent in FY2022, unless the available vaccines turn out to be ineffective against new COVID-19 variants, causing commodity prices, consumer confidence and business sentiment to plunge," Nayar added.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy decision on 5 February, kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting and said that the outlook for core inflation is influenced by the escalation in cost-push pressures seen in recent months.
Petroleum product prices have reached historic highs as international crude prices surged in recent months and the high indirect taxes remain, both in the Centre and States. These, along with the sharp increase in industrial raw material prices have resulted in a broad-based increase in prices of services and manufacturing products in recent months.
"Going forward, concerted policy action by both Centre and States, is critical to ensure that the ongoing cost build-up does not escalate further," the RBI had said.
Data released last week showed retail inflation, based on the consumer price index, was at 4.06 percent in January. "We expect the CPI inflation to have bottomed out in January 2021, with large upticks expected in the next two prints. This, combined with the anticipated hardening in the core-WPI inflation, reaffirms our view that there is no room for further rate cuts in this cycle," Nayar added.
The RBI governor said inflation is currently the biggest challenge confronting most economies in the world and the current surge is primarily because of global factors
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The article was prepared by a team of economist under the guidance of deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra