US job market likely to shape Fed’s rate cut decision this month, Wall Street anxious

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs at its upcoming meeting September 17-18 and the strength of the job market is likely to be a deciding factor on whether it delivers a quarter-of-a-percentage-point cut or a bigger half-point cut.

Below is a sampling of Wall Street banks’ forecasts for the August employment report along with their expectations for the size of the Fed’s rate cut later this month. Banks’ baseline forecasts are indicated in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS.

Some banks have also roughed out what they think the Fed could do under a range of possible readings in Friday’s labor market report. Fed policy rate forecasts provided under these alternative scenarios are indicated with an *asterisk* in the table.

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Overall, economists polled by Reuters estimate the US unemployment rate fell to 4.2 per cent in August, from 4.3 per cent in July, and payrolls rose by 160,000, up from July’s 114,000. Employment data will be released 0830 ET (1230 GMT) on Friday.