Retail inflation eases marginally to 3.15% in July despite costlier food items
Retail inflation eased marginally in July to 3.15 percent over the previous month despite costlier food items, said a government data released on Tuesday evening
The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.18 percent in June and 4.17 percent in July 2018
As per the data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the inflation in the food basket was 2.36 percent in July, marginally up from 2.25 percent in the previous month
Retail inflation is well below the RBI's comfort level
New Delhi: Consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation eased marginally to 3.15 percent in July on the back of softening fuel and light prices, even as inflation in the overall food basket moved up, government data showed on Tuesday.
Retail inflation was 3.18 percent in June 2019, while it stood at 4.17 percent in the year-ago period (July 2018).
The overall food inflation, measured on consumer food price index (CPFI), moved up to 2.36 percent during July from the revised 2.25 percent print for June 2019, as per data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
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The rate of price rise in vegetables softened to 2.82 percent during the latest month as against a rise of 4.66 percent in June, while prices of 'pulses and products' went up to 6.82 percent from 5.68 percent.
In case of fruits, the price trend showed upside movement with an inflation print of (-) 0.86 percent as against (-) 4.18 percent a month earlier.
Prices of protein-rich 'meat and fish' rose at nearly the same level at 9.05 percent (from 9.01 percent in June), however, inflation in eggs eased to 0.57 percent (against 1.62 percent).
In fuel and light category, deflation was witnessed with a print at (-) 0.36 percent, as against a rise of 2.32 percent a month ago.
"The marginal dip in the CPI inflation in July 2019 was led by fuel and light, which recorded a disinflation in that month, even as food and core inflation inched up.
"The incoming trends in food prices need to be cautiously watched, following the recent flooding in some states, rising vegetable prices and continued lag in Kharif sowing. Moreover, an unfavourable base effect is likely to contribute to a hardening of food inflation in the ongoing quarter," said Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, Icra.
Retail inflation remains subdued with most of the components indicating not much variation compared to the earlier periods, said Joseph Thomas, Head Research- Emkay Wealth Management.
"But, we need to make allowance for factors like a cheaper Rupee, loss of crops due to heavy rains and the consequent effects on prices, while trying to judge the future inflation levels," he added.
Nayar said the core-CPI inflation may not ease meaningfully from the current levels, as demand for services will remain sticky even during an economic slowdown.
"At present, we expect the CPI inflation to inch up in the next two months, while remaining below the MPC's target of 4 percent during the second quarter of FY2020.
"The CPI inflation trajectory may allow for a 15 bps rate cut in October 2019, after monsoon related uncertainties get resolved, especially if crude oil and other commodity prices remain relatively soft," she added.
As per the latest sowing data maintained by the Union Agriculture Ministry, total acreage sown to all Kharif crops so far has remained lower at 869.55 lakh hectare as against 918.70 lakh hectare in the year-ago period.
Agriculture Secretary Sanjay Agrawal on Friday said that the deficit in overall sowing area has improved compared to the previous week and the gap has come down.
Currently, the retail inflation is well below the RBI's comfort level. The government has asked the central bank to keep inflation in the range of 4 percent.
The Reserve Bank of India mainly factors in retail inflation in its bi-monthly monetary policy.
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