RBI cuts FY17 growth forecast to 6.9%, pegs 7.4% for next year

In its last monetary policy on December 7, the central bank had cut growth forecast to 7.1 percent, from its earlier projection of 7.6 percent for this fiscal.

PTI February 08, 2017 16:34:14 IST
RBI cuts FY17 growth forecast to 6.9%, pegs 7.4% for next year

New Delhi: RBI Governor Urjit Patel today cut the economic growth forecast to 6.9 percent for the current fiscal from 7.1 percent estimated earlier, even as he said the economy will bounce back to 7.4 percent rate next fiscal.

The Reserve Bank today kept key interest rates unchanged saying it wants to assess how the transitory effects of demonetisation on inflation and the output gap play out.

RBI cuts FY17 growth forecast to 69 pegs 74 for next year

Reuters

"GVA (gross value added) growth for 2016-17 is projected at 6.9 percent with risks evenly balanced around it. Growth is expected to recover sharply in 2017-18 on account of several factors. GVA growth for 2017-18 is projected at 7.4 percent, with risks evenly balanced," the RBI said in its 6th bi-monthly monetary policy statement.

In its last monetary policy on December 7, the central bank had cut growth forecast to 7.1 percent, from its earlier projection of 7.6 percent for this fiscal.

The apex bank said that discretionary consumer demand held back by demonetisation is expected to bounce back in the closing months of 2016-17.

Economic activity in cash-intensive sectors such as retail trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation as well as in the unorganised sector is expected to be rapidly
restored, the RBI said.

"Demonetisation-induced ease in bank funding conditions has led to a sharp improvement in transmission of past policy rate reductions into marginal cost-based lending rates (MCLRs), and in turn, to lending rates for healthy borrowers, which should spur a pick-up in both consumption and investment demand," it added.

The apex bank said the emphasis in the 2017-18 Budget was on stepping up capital expenditure and boosting the rural economy and affordable housing, which will contribute to the economic growth.

The RBI projection of 6.9 percent GVA growth for current fiscal comes on the back of the Economic Survey last week forecasting economic growth of 6.5 percent.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), in its advance estimates for 2016-17 on January 6, placed India's real GVA growth at 7 percent for the year, but it did not take into account the impact of demonetisation on economic activity.

The growth forecast of 7.4 percent in 2017-18 is on the upper end of the 6.75 to 7.5 percent band estimated in the Economic Survey.

Updated Date:

also read

Afghanistan faces `make-or-break moment', says UN Chief
World

Afghanistan faces `make-or-break moment', says UN Chief

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres urged the world to prevent the country's economy from collapsing and appealed to the Taliban to stop breaking its promises

India must focus on public investment as economy recovers from pandemic, suggests IMF
World

India must focus on public investment as economy recovers from pandemic, suggests IMF

IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department Deputy Director Paolo Mauro advised that special attention must be given to green investment to ensure that recovery is inclusive and eco-friendly

Banks to remain closed for six days this week starting today; here's the full list
India

Banks to remain closed for six days this week starting today; here's the full list

This month, a total of 21 bank holidays will be observed, according to RBI guidelines. These include festivals and weekends