Charts: Second worst June rainfall in more than 50 years but here's why it's not a worry yet

[caption id=“attachment_89095” align=“alignleft” width=“860”]  South-west monsoon rainfall is running almost 10days late and rains are deficient at 45% below normal across India. During the last drought in 2009, June had 47% below normal rainfall and this year June has seen second lowest rainfall in historical terms. However, June rainfall forms only 15% of the total south-west monsoon rainfall. Source: Edelweiss[/caption]

[caption id=“attachment_89098” align=“alignleft” width=“860”]  As per last IMD forecast, India would get rainfall of 93% below LPA this year. However,in this deficient rainfall scenario, above average river storage levels is a relief. The chart below shows that most Indian rivers are flowing substantially above their average storage levels. As of 19 June 2014,Ganga, Rivers of Kutch & Godavari are flowing at 207%, 152% & 116% of their 10 year avg respectively and their levels have increased substantially since March. Only Southern rivers, Krishna & Cauvery continue to remain a concern as they are flowing at -69% & -29% of their avg. Source: Edelweiss[/caption]

[caption id=“attachment_89096” align=“alignleft” width=“860”]  Except South-India, all reservoirs are currently having water stock above normal levels. Hence, most reservoirs barring South India are sufficient as of date. Source: Edelweiss[/caption]

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[caption id=“attachment_89099” align=“alignleft” width=“860”]  Also adequate food grain production and enough buffer stock may aid in bringing inflation under check.“Consistently high production of cereals, pulses & cash crops since the last 3 years may ease the situation in a low rainfall,” said Edelweiss. Moreover, last season, production was much higher than target across crops. ( The colour pink marks the drought years)[/caption]

[caption id=“attachment_89100” align=“alignleft” width=“860”]  Lastly India is producing higher amount of rice & wheat which has led the government to accumulate sufficient amount of buffer stock. For example, rice buffer stock is at 32mn tonnes- much higher than the targeted buffer and way ahead as compared to the previous three drought seasons.“In case of persistently lower rainfall , total buffer stock of 74.74mn tonnes is sufficient to control price shock in our view,” noted Edelweiss.[/caption]