Oil prices drop nearly 1 percent on recession concerns; Germany’s shrinking manufacturing output data adds to slowdown woes

Singapore: Oil prices dropped by almost 1 percent on Monday, with concerns recession could be looming outweighing supply disruptions from OPEC’s production cutbacks and from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Brent crude oil futures were at $66.56 per barrel, down 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.52 per barrel, down 52 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their previous settlement. [caption id=“attachment_2007347” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] Both crude oil price benchmarks have slumped by more than 3 percent since last week hitting their highest since November 2018. Concerns about a potential US recession resurfaced late last week after bearish remarks by the US Federal Reserve, with 10-year treasury yields slipping below the three-month rate for the first time since 2007. Historically, an inverted yield curve - where long-term rates fall below short-term - has signalled an upcoming recession. Adding to the fears of a more widespread global downturn, manufacturing output data from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, shrunk for the third straight month. “Estimates for growth and earnings have been revised down materially across all major regions,” said US bank Morgan Stanley. ANZ bank said the darkening economic outlook “overshadowed the supply-side issues” the oil market was facing amid supply cuts led by producer club Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as the US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The OPEC and non-affiliated allies such as Russia, together referred to as ‘OPEC+’, have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply this year to prop up markets, with OPEC’s de facto leader seen to be pushing for a crude price of over $70 per barrel.