India's GDP likely to recover in Q4 of FY19; third quarter may remain slow, says Niti Aayog vice chairman
The growth in GDP in July-September is the lowest in three quarters but better than 6.3 percent in the same period of the previous year.
Guwahati: The country's economy is likely to bounce back during the fourth quarter at a faster rate to match the overall projection for the current fiscal, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Tuesday.
However, the economy is unlikely to recover in the third quarter from the slow pace during the last quarter, the Aayog said.
"Niti Aayog has not done its own projection yet. I think it will be around the same figure as projected by the Reserve Bank, which will be 7.4-7.5 percent," Kumar told PTI here.
He was responding to a query on the overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India during the current financial year.
When asked if the economy will bounce back in the third quarter, Kumar said: "(It) may not recover. The recovery will be, I think, in second half. I don't know about quarter three. But I think we will remain in the same level and then become faster in quarter four. That way I am looking at it".
India's GDP growth in the July-September quarter slipped to 7.1 percent from 8.2 percent in the April-June quarter as consumption demand moderated and farm sector displayed signs of weakness.
The growth in GDP in July-September is the lowest in three quarters but better than 6.3 percent in the same period of the previous year, helping the country retain the tag of the world's fastest-growing major economy, ahead of China.
Meanwhile, Crisil has cut India's growth forecast for current fiscal to 7.4 percent from 7.5 percent on the back of weakening global GDP and trade growth.
Care Ratings also cut its forecast by a similar measure to 7.4 percent, saying the subdued pickup in economic activity in the second quarter and constraints in the financial system will dent growth.
Analysts at ICRA Ratings retained their growth forecast, but at a much lower level of 7.2 percent. Similarly, India Ratings also reiterated its 7.3 percent estimate.
India's retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent in April, the highest since May 2014. Experts note that steeper edible oil and supply chain disruptions owing to the Russia-Ukraine war are responsible for rising prices
Speaking at a Niti Aayog event, Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said, 'Today, a drone pilot can be trained by being a 12th class pass, no college degrees are required'
Amid speculation over the actual number of COVID-19 deaths, the government has released the latest CRS data. It shows there was an increase of about 4.75 lakh deaths in 2020 than the previous year, however, it does not reveal how many of it were due to COVID-19