India's GDP likely to recover in Q4 of FY19; third quarter may remain slow, says Niti Aayog vice chairman

Guwahati: The country’s economy is likely to bounce back during the fourth quarter at a faster rate to match the overall projection for the current fiscal, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Tuesday. However, the economy is unlikely to recover in the third quarter from the slow pace during the last quarter, the Aayog said. “Niti Aayog has not done its own projection yet. I think it will be around the same figure as projected by the Reserve Bank, which will be 7.4-7.5 percent,” Kumar told PTI here. [caption id=“attachment_4129619” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters.[/caption] He was responding to a query on the overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India during the current financial year. When asked if the economy will bounce back in the third quarter, Kumar said: “(It) may not recover. The recovery will be, I think, in second half. I don’t know about quarter three. But I think we will remain in the same level and then become faster in quarter four. That way I am looking at it”. India’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter slipped to 7.1 percent from 8.2 percent in the April-June quarter as consumption demand moderated and farm sector displayed signs of weakness. The growth in GDP in July-September is the lowest in three quarters but better than 6.3 percent in the same period of the previous year, helping the country retain the tag of the world’s fastest-growing major economy, ahead of China. Meanwhile, Crisil has cut India’s growth forecast for current fiscal to 7.4 percent from 7.5 percent on the back of weakening global GDP and trade growth. Care Ratings also cut its forecast by a similar measure to 7.4 percent, saying the subdued pickup in economic activity in the second quarter and constraints in the financial system will dent growth. Analysts at ICRA Ratings retained their growth forecast, but at a much lower level of 7.2 percent. Similarly, India Ratings also reiterated its 7.3 percent estimate.