Indian economy likely to grow at 7.4% in FY19, says economic policy think-tank NCAER

New Delhi: Economic policy think-tank NCAER has retained India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4 percent citing comfortable agricultural sector outlook and a marked improvement in the external sector. According to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) report, in 2018–19 the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 4.6 percent, real industry GVA at 5.1 percent, and real services GVA at 8.5 percent. “Both the NCAER annual and quarterly models forecast that GVA will grow at 7 percent per annum in 2018–19 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. [caption id=“attachment_4336087” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters.[/caption] “The annual model forecasts that GDP at market prices will grow at 7.4 percent for 2018–19 on a year-on-year basis, same as May 2018,” NCAER’s latest Quarterly Review of the Economy said. The growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 11.9 percent and 15.1 percent respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at 2 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. According to the economic policy think tank, the trends for both rainfall and prices indicate comfortable agricultural sector outlook for the year as a whole. Noting that there was also a marked improvement in the external sector in 2018–19, NCAER said that “the financial year 2017–18 witnessed a rise of 9.9 percent and 18.6 percent, respectively, in exports and imports, on a y-o-y basis”. “The upswing continued even in FY 2018–19, wherein the total exports grew at the rate of 18 percent and total imports surged at 15.1 percent on a year-on-year basis during the period April–May,” it added.