Indian adspend still high, but falling

The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the marketing intelligence service, indicates that global advertising spend will increase by 4 percent in 2013, a downgrade of -0.9pp from August’s forecast, according to a Warc announcement made today.

Adspend is expected to grow more rapidly in 2014, rising 5.5 percent.

India’s adspend is now projected to grow at 8.5 percent. In comparison with many countries, this figure might seem healthy, but the disappointment is in the fact that it is 3.8 percent lower than the projections made in Warc’s August 2012 forecast - the biggest fall in any of the countries studied.

[caption id=“attachment_582345” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Of the 13 markets covered by the report, 11 are forecast growth in adspend in 2013.[/caption]

Russia, China and Brazil are predicted to record the biggest increases in advertising spend in 2013 with all-media growth of 12.3%, 10.9% and 9.8%, respectively. These markets are expected to maintain high levels of growth in 2014.

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By contrast, Spain and Italy are expected to be the worst performers this year, with predicted declines of -2.8% and -1.1%, respectively. Both have had their forecasts significantly downgraded but are expected to return to growth in 2014.

Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.

Of the 13 markets covered by the report, 11 are forecast growth in adspend in 2013. However, all countries, with the exception of Brazil, have seen expectations lowered since the last Consensus Forecast, released in August 2012.

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Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc said: “In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we’re all keen to see how advertising holds up without these quadrennial factors. There are still risks for global economic growth. Marketers are not ready to adjust their cautious approach just yet. "

The Warc Consensus Ad Forecast is updated four times a year and provides estimates for total advertising expenditure and expenditure on seven individual media for 13 markets.

The markets covered by the forecast are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, UK and US.