Icra forecasts Q4 GDP growth at 7.4% on account of good rabi harvest, improved corporate earnings

New Delhi: Rating agency Icra expects GDP growth in January-March 2017-18 at 7.4 percent on account of good rabi crop harvest and improved corporate earnings, up from 7.2 percent in the third quarter. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to come out with GDP estimate for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2017-18 and provisional annual estimates for the year 2017-18 on 31 May. “The domestic GDP growth rate is expected to improve to 7.4 percent in Q4 FY2018 from 7.2 percent in Q3 FY2018, exceeding the implicit forecast of 7.1 percent embedded in the CSO’s Second Advance Estimate of National Income for 2017-18,” Icra said in a release. [caption id=“attachment_4203819” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters.[/caption] As per Icra, the growth of the Indian gross value added (GVA) at basic prices in year-on-year (YoY) terms is likely to record a considerable recovery to 7.3 percent in Q4 FY2018 from 6.7 percent in Q3 FY2018, thereby rebounding above 7 percent after a gap of five quarters. This revival in the fourth quarter, relative to the previous three months, is expected to be broad-based, supported by an uptick in industry (to 7.7 percent from +6.8 percent), agriculture, forestry and fishing (to 4.5 percent from 4.1 percent), and services (to 7.8 percent from +7.7 percent), it said. “The uptick in economic activity that set in during the second half of 2017, is expected to have strengthened in Q4 FY2018, led by a healthy rabi harvest, robust volume growth in various sectors, an improvement in corporate earnings and a favourable base effect,” said Principal Economist of ICRA Aditi Nayar. The rating agency further said it expects a mild pickup in growth in the services sector, reflecting the improvement in diesel and petrol consumption, service sector exports, passengers carried by domestic airlines, cargo handled at major ports and railway revenue carrying freight.