 "Harris-Trump debate’s effect on investors: US stock futures slip, dollar edges lower in Asia")
U.S. stock futures slipped and the dollar edged lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday as Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris faced each other for the first time, with some analysts saying Harris put in a stronger performance.
Online prediction market PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market showed Harris’ odds at improving to 55% from 52% immediately before the debate, while Trump’s odds slipped to 47% from 51%.
Stock futures eased as the debate progressed, with the S&P 500 E-minis down 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis down 0.5%.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency’s strength against six major peers, slipped 0.2%.
Comments:
Onu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist, Carson Group
“I think the debate is not going to change many minds, as voters remain closely divided. The only indication is that Harris moved ahead in prediction markets but that still keeps the race very close,”
“There wasn’t much substantive discussion of policy. Neither candidate advocated for vastly different economic policies than currently in place. Ultimately, a lot of economic policies that we see implemented next year will depend on the makeup of the Senate and the House, and negotiations related to the extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (which former President Trump signed into law in 2017).”
Gregory Faranello, Head of U.S. rates, Amerivet Securities
“Net net, I thought Vice President Harris, definitely did well. She held her own. But you know, we still didn’t learn anything new other than he said, she said, “There was no major knockout blow. We’ll have to see what the polls bring in the days ahead but you know it’s going to be a tight election and the market is going to be probably focused more on monetary policy short term than the election.”
Impact Shorts
More ShortsSteve Sosnick, Chief Market Strategist, Interactive Brokers, Greenwich, CT.
“It’s all been fairly general during the debate. They have talked about chips and energy and solar, but not really any specific details. There hasn’t been anything for markets to sink their teeth into.”
“Because the margin is so narrow, I think markets don’t know what to make of the whole campaign at this stage. It does appear that Harris is outpointing Trump, but I don’t know that the markets have voted yet. And I don’t know if the people who need to be convinced are watching. We may see more of a reaction when the top soundbites from this debate start rippling out and being discussed in the next few days.”
Rob Carnell, Ing’s Regional Head of Research For Asia-Pacific
“I don’t think there’s a lot for markets here… there doesn’t seem to be a lot that seems to be particularly economic right now. I think Harris seems to be managing Trump quite well.”
“You’d expect if he (Trump) was doing better, that you’d see a strong dollar coming out of this. So I suppose that’s the way the market is looking at it. It’s a slight lean towards Harris.”
Ken Cheung, Director, FX Strategy, Mizuho Securities Asia, Hong Kong
“Some of the U.S. dollar movement is driven by the debate performance. I think the interpretation, for the Chinese yuan, is that it is very sensitive to Trump’s policy on the tariff side.”
Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Capital
“This debate doesn’t seem to be changing the fact that it’s going to be a very close election.”
“They’re covering all the issues; the moderators are doing a good job of managing the debate and voters are getting a pretty good depiction of the policies and temperaments of both candidates.”
“But perception is reality and if people don’t feel their lives are improving, that will shape their behavior in November.”
Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist, at Corpay in Toronto
“No knockout blow has been landed, but the dollar is edging lower as Kamala Harris opens a marginal lead over Donald Trump in prediction markets.”
“Currencies that might find themselves on the front line in another trade war - the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Chinese renminbi - are advancing amid muted volumes.”
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