GDP growth rate updates: FinMin Piyush Goyal says numbers show economy is set for higher growth

Downward revision by Moody's due to oil prices: DEA secretary

Subhash Chandra Garg said he does not see any revisions in the forecast for FY19's growth print. He said that any reduction in excise duty will have an impact on fiscal deficit. 

Oil prices not impacting growth: Subhash Chandra Garg

Govt maintains FY19 growth forecast at 7.5 percent, says Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg. Doesn't see oil prices impacting growth. Fiscal deficit to be within 3.5 percent target, said Garg.

Piyush Goyal says the economy is on the right track 

Economist says GDP numbers 'very comforting'

Tushar Arora, senior economist, HDFC Bank, said there are some bad bugs in the form of rising oil prices, higher bond yields and lingering non-performing asset issues, affecting the overall sentiment related to the Indian economy.

"However, today’s GDP number is very comforting and should put a lot of concerns to rest. (It) Seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation. The pick-up in investment activity (fixed capital formation) is also a good sign. If the government can provide some impetus to the exports sector, the main drag at the moment, we could soon see the headline number inching close to 8 percent,” Arora told Reuters 

Economist expect FY19 credit growth to improve marginally to 12-13%

Garmia Kapoor, economist and vice-president, Elara Capital, said a $10/bl increase in crude prices can impact growth by around 20-30 bps. "The impact works through two channels - decline in demand owing to rise in prices and higher cost of borrowing as interest rates increase with upside risks to inflation,” Kapoor told Reuters 

“Apart from high oil prices, another factor that could potentially add downside risk this year is a possible moderation in global trade growth amid continuing tensions. We expect RBI to revise its policy stance in June and follow it up with a hike of 25 bps in Aug policy. Of the factors that RBI mentioned as risks in its April policy, an increase in global crude oil prices has come to fruition," she said. 

Strong economic expansion lifts India's April domestic passenger demand: IATA

​​Strong economic and network expansion lifted India's domestic passenger traffic in April, a global airline association said on Thursday.

As per the data, India's domestic RPK in the month under review rose by 26.4 per cent in April compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

-IANS

April core industrial output rises 4.7%

The output of India's eight major industries accelerated by 4.7 percent in April from a rise of 4.4 percent in March, official data showed on Thursday.

"The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 124.2 in April, 2018, which was 4.7 percent higher as compared to the index of April, 2017," the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said in a statement.

"Its cumulative growth during April to March, 2017-18 was 4.3 percent."

According to the ministry, the 'Index of Eight Core Industries' (ECI), which represent major sectors like coal, steel, cement and electricity showed an uptrend on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. 

The index had registered a rise of 2.6 percent during the corresponding month of 2017.

The ECI index carries 40.27 percent weightage of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which is the macro-gauge for India's factory output.

-IANS

Agri, manufacturing and construction see rapid growth 

Roust growth in agriculture (4.5 percent), manufacturing (9.1 percent) and construction sectors (11.5 percent) contributed to the overall growth, said the statement by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

Eight infra sectors record 4.7% growth in April

Govt reports GDP growth rate of 6.7% for FY18, 7.7% for Jan-March quarter 

FICCI's economic survey expects growth at 7.4%

Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey, based on the opinion of economists, projects the annual economic growth for 2018-19 at 7.4 percent with a minimum and maximum of 6.9 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.

The chamber's survey further said that "some concerns" are visible on external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.1 percent of GDP for 2018-19.
The surge in oil prices has emerged as a major risk factor and can weigh down heavy on India's external position and overall growth prospects.

The weakening rupee is further adding strain on the imports.

"In fact, the economists felt that the rupee might continue to remain under pressure during the remaining part of the year," it said.

Rural consumption expected to accelerate

Moody’s said growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption, supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon.

“The private investment cycle will continue to make a gradual recovery, as twin balance-sheet issues—impaired assets at banks and corporates—slowly get addressed through deleveraging and the application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code,” it said.

GDP growth numbers

3 richest large states have 3 times the per capita GDP of the 3 poorest states

Congress questions govt's silence over Moody's GDP forecast

Moody's cuts GDP in growth forecast to 7.3%

Credit rating agency Moody's on Wednesday cut its forecast for India's GDP growth in 2018 to 7.3 percent from 7.5 percent earlier. The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.
We expect GDP growth of about 7.3 percent in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5 percent. Our growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 percent," it said in an update of its 'Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19'.

Icra expects GDP growth rate to improve to 7.4 percent in Q4 FY2018

“The domestic GDP growth rate is expected to improve to 7.4 percent in Q4 FY2018 from 7.2 percent in Q3 FY2018, exceeding the implicit forecast of 7.1 percent embedded in the CSO’s Second Advance Estimate of National Income for 2017-18,” Icra said in a release on Wednesday. 

As per Icra, the growth of the Indian gross value added (GVA) at basic prices in year-on-year (YoY) terms is likely to record a considerable recovery to 7.3 per cent in Q4 FY2018 from 6.7 percent in Q3 FY2018, thereby rebounding above 7 per cent after a gap of five quarters.

This revival in the fourth quarter, relative to the previous three months, is expected to be broad-based, supported by an uptick in industry (to 7.7 percent from +6.8 percent), agriculture, forestry and fishing (to 4.5 percent from 4.1 percent), and services (to 7.8 percent from +7.7 percent), it said

Aditi Nayar, principal economist ICRA said: "The uptick in economic activity that set in during the second half of 2017, is expected to have strengthened in Q4 FY2018, led by a healthy rabi harvest, robust volume growth in various sectors, an improvement in corporate earnings and a favourable base effect."

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SBI expects GDP growth rate of 6.7% for FY18

SBI said: "FY18 is likely to spring a positive surprise. We expect GDP growth for Q4FY18 would be around 7.6 percent and subsequently the FY18 growth would be at 6.7 percent.
 

SBI Ecowrap, authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, said, "We expect 9.0 percent growth in Manufacturing GVA in Q4 due to smart growth in Corporate GVA as both of these are strongly positively correlated. Corporate GVA which decelerated since Q3 FY17 rebounded in Q2 FY18 and exhibited positive growth of 16.1 percent in Q4 Agriculture sector will post a growth rate in excess of CSO projections with a better foodgrain production estimates. We also believe Service sector growth will hold up in excess of 8 percent."