Monsoon contingency: Ministry planning many approaches for states

The Indian monsoon has entered the month of July with a rain deficit of 30 to 70 percent in different regions of the country.Although experts are calling the month gone by as ’lost month’ they assure that the situation cannot be called a drought in the making.

“We have lost one month and there is rain deficit in certain regions. There is definitely an alert in the system and we need to be on our toes. But to say there we are staring at a drought like situation, would be going too far,” said Dr Ashok Gulati, chairman, commission for agricultural costs and prices.

“The ministry has already done lot of contingency planning and for more ten days now, a drill is going on focusing on how to recover the damage done in the lost month and how to reduce further damage,” he added.

A bad monsoon can have adverse impact on the already ailing economy. Barring staple crops, Indian farmers depend on the June- September monsoon for coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds. According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data, monsoon has stalled over central India because of which the June-July period saw 31 percent below average rainfall.

It was 27 percent below average the previous month. Parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, UP and Karnataka are facing rain deficit ranging between 30 and 70 per cent. IMD director S C Bhan said that there was rain deficit, but heavy rainfall during July-August was expected to compensate for the shortfall.

Explaining the questions that the contingency plan typically tackles, Dr Gulati said: “We are looking at each state separately and many ideas are in the pipeline. For example, if we lose the main crop or it is delayed, what sort of needs would be required? Can we go for the second types of seeds which will be late sowing variety? Instead of paddy can we go for pulses? If farmers have sown and it has not rained for one month, can we give them subsidised seeds? The ministry is thinking around all these factors.”

“The current trend is disturbing. But we are still going by our previous estimates issued for July. More of Northern India is expected to get good rainfall in the weeks to come.”. Dr Gulati said he took the IMD predictions with a pinch of salt.

“Forecasts by almost 70 per cent of weather monitoring stations across the world are expressing the possibility of El Nino condition around August 15. That would mean you have a crop in the field which is sown, but it does not get water. That could be damaging,” he said.

However, rain deficit or even drought does not necessarily mean a fall in growth rate, said Dr Amit Sharma, senior fellow and NABARD chair at National Council for Applied Economic Research.

“The year 2009-10 was a drought year but we witnessed positive growth, not significant though. That was because of the contingency plan prepared by the ministry.” Union Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said that though there was concern about delayed monsoon, it was too early to press the panic button.

“By and large the situation may not be fully satisfactory, but it is not bad either … There is ample opportunity to cover the delay,” Economic Times quoted Pawar as saying.