Lok Sabha elections: Satta bazaar bets on Modi, gives Kejriwal 1:500 chance of winning

In what could be another warning bell for the Congress, the illegal betting market or satta bazaar, is betting on Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi-led BJP to sweep the elections thanks to allies such as J Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, The Economic Times reported today.

The odds on Modi becoming PM are pegged at 42 paise on the rupee while for Rahul Gandhi it is 15 times more at Rs 6.5. However, it is least favourable for Aaam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal. The gambling world has given Kejriwal a one out of 500 chance of winning.

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For instance, if you bet Rs 1 lakh, you willreceive Rs 5 crore if Kejriwal is elected as PM, Rs 6.5 lakh, if Rahul becomes PM and Rs 1.42 lakh if Modi comes to power with at least 200 seats.

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What this essentially means is that the expectation of a Modi win is high, which is why the payout is lower on the odds on him.

The overall odds are thus Rs 1.80 for the BJP if it wins 220 seats, 22 paise on the rupee for 200 seats and 57 paise if it wins 210 seats. This means if the bet was Rs 1 lakh, the bettor will get Rs 1.80 lakh if BJP comes to power with 220 seats, Rs 1.22 lakh if BJP wins 200 seats and Rs 1.57 lakh if the party wins 210 seats.

For the same value of money on the Congress, you would get Rs 1.60 if it wins 85 seats. This essentially means that punters are not hopeful of Congress crossing more than 75 seats the total tally of UPA seats is being pegged at 100-105. Raging inflation, slowdown and the organisational weaknesses of the Congress are all factors going against the UPA government.

And for AAP, the same value of money will get you Rs 2.75 if the party manages to get at least 10 seats.

Bookies and bettors closely study political trends, poll strategies of parties and media analyses before putting their monies. Exit polls, which show the mood of the political outcome, suggest the odds are in favour of BJP.

Clearly, betting oncandidates and political outfits are on the rise and bookies were quoted in ET as saying that the satta bazaar is set to rake in about Rs Rs 60,000 crore by the time elections are concluded, compared with Rs 50,000 crore in the last election in 2009.