Jaitley begins budget speech: Nine things to expect from Budget 2015

Given the expectations, what will satisfy industry, the middle class, the poor, and the markets, which were still bullish at the time of writing? In my view, this is what one can reasonably expect from Budget 2015. #1: A higher plan allocation for driving public investment. A gameplan to ask cash-rich public sector companies to start investing. #2: A moderation of the fiscal deficit roadmap - whereby the reduction in 2015-16 will be halved. Instead of the 2015-16 target of 3.6 percent, Jaitley could settle for 3.9 percent, and promise an acceleration in the deficit reduction when tax revenues improve in future years.

#3: Increase investment allowance to spur corporate investment, and a reduction in the minimum alternate tax (MAT). #4: A general increase in the personal IT exemption - say to Rs 3 lakh of tax-free income - and a more liberal 80C deduction limits, maybe to Rs 2 lakh from the current Rs 1.5 lakh. #5: A new method of financing infrastructure. Last year he announced that banks would be able to raise long-term infra bonds without the burden of SLR, etc. This time he will need to find a way to expand the tap. #6: Announce a grand vision for where customs duties will be relative to the rest of Asia. #7: Clarify the goods and services tax (GST) time line so that there is no ambiguity over it. #8: Accelerate public sector disinvestment, announcing a plan for year-round share sales through a new vehicle. This will include sale of shares held by SUUTI (L&T, Axis Bank, ITC), and the balance shares in already privatised HZL and Balco. The last two alone can raise over Rs 60,000 crore. Public sector and banking reforms will also be key. #9: Privatisation of loss-making public sector units, and a golden share for other units that will allow the government to disinvest more in public sector banks without losing the ability to issue policy directives.