IIP numbers don't reflect impact of recent initiatives, says Montek

Terming the decline in industrial output in September as “very disappointing”, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia today said the impact of recent reforms initiatives will manifest in the data for the second half of the fiscal.

“The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September is obviously very disappointing…the September data does not reflect the impact of any recent initiatives. These initiatives will also take some time to have an impact”, he said.

[caption id=“attachment_522939” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  The Reserve Bank of India had projected 5.8 percent growth rate for 2012-13. PTI[/caption]

Ahluwalia was commenting on the IIP data which showed that industrial output in September contracted by 0.4 percent in September due to dismal show by manufacturing sector and decline in consumer as well as capital goods output.

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“We have to look to the second half of the current year to see if the economy is actually going to do better. September data is obviously a bit of low point”, he said.

IIP data showed a very negative growth in capital goods reflecting investment downturn, he said, adding “investment is not something which reverses itself month to month. If investment plans have slowed down, it takes long time to pick up. You should not expect very quick reversal on monthly basis”.

The economy, Ahluwalia said, has already hit the bottom but it would take some time to know whether the turn around has begun or not. The economic growth rate slipped to nine-year low of 6.5 percent in 2011-12 and may fall further in the current fiscal on account of various domestic and international factors.

The Reserve Bank of India had projected 5.8 percent growth rate for 2012-13.

PTI