Arun Jaitley will present the Modi’s government’s maiden budget in just over an hour and not surprisingly, the markets are flat. But market mavens are not sitting idle. They have their scoresheets ready, and if Arun Jaitley does not get a decent grade in their scoresheet, they will vote with their feet.
But you need not sit twiddling your thumbs either. Apart from getting yourself a packet (or packets) of chips and some soft drinks (the hard drinks should be left for the end and depend on the quality of the budget), you can make your own scorecard. Here I am sharing mine. These are the things to look for in the budget, beyond you tax breaks. Score 1 for bad, and 5 for very good, and the rest for budget elements somewhere in between.
**#1:**The level of fiscal deficit projected for 2014-15. P Chidambaram indicated 4.1 percent; Jaitley, after restating accounts, may peg it higher. Possibly around 4.3-4.5 percent. Score 5 if he retains it at 4.1 percent, and 1 if it goes well beyond 4.7 percent.
**#2:**Check the level of subsidies: The ideal is 2 percent of GDP. but they are currently at 2.26 percent - but after shifting many unpaid bills to 2014-15. The actual level may be above 2.5 percent of GDP. A retained level of 2.26 percent would still be good. Anything below that would be a 5. A subsidy level beyond 2.56 is bad.
**#3:**Look for the amounts to be raised from public sector share selloffs. Anything above Rs 70,000 if good (score 3), anything touching Rs 1,00,000 croe is excellent. Score 5. Below Rs 60,000 crore, give it a 1. This money is key to any kind of investment in capital spending, which holds the key to reviving the economy.
**#4:**Direct taxes. If Jaitley makes only marginal changes in basic tax exemptions and 80C, you may want to throw something at your TV. But it may be good for the economy since this is a difficult year for tax revenues. Score 5 if there is no change or only a marginal change in basic exemptions. An increase in 80C limits is also good, since this will force you to save more. India needs more saving to revive the investment cycle.
**#5:**Look for signals on changes in laws: land laws, labour reforms, food security and NREGA changes. These have to be tweaked to get the economy back in shape. Better targeting of subsidies - through direct cash transfers, for example - will also be a good thing. Every time the opposition cries foul, score higher for the government. It means populism is being eschewed.