Why India simply has to strategically shelve Pakistan

Washington – The killing of five Indian soldiers by Pakistanis along the line of control has elicited two kinds of responses in India – one naively hopeful and the other belligerently aggressive.

One talks of continuing the dialogue with Pakistan no matter what happens on the ground, the other, coming largely from the opposition BJP and its supporters, talks of outright revenge. Yashwant Sinha, a BJP stalwart and a former minister, got so carried away, he said the current Indian government was “sponsoring” Pakistan.

Neither extreme serves India’s national interests. The first imposes a high burden on elected leaders that they continue engaging Pakistan’s civilian government even though it exercises little or no power over the country’s foreign policy, the other advocates a foolhardy rush to war. Meanwhile, the Pakistan army functions in utter disregard of its civilian leaders and activates its proxies against India, the Indian army revises its statements under political guidance.

A more surreal scenario would be hard to imagine.

What India needs is to strategically shelve Pakistan and create other options and pressure points. An obvious one is to take a new look at Afghanistan and reconsider strengthening the Afghan National Army, if not by supplying weapons then by helping in procurement.

Americans will object on Pakistan’s behalf but surely they understand India can’t keep absorbing attacks from both sides – in Afghanistan as on its Jalalabad consulate and along the LOC. These attacks will continue as will the inaction of the international community despite the “intercepts” and ISI’s fingerprints. Amrullah Saleh, Afghanistan’s former intelligence chief, told me that for Pakistan “it is vital to evict India or Indian influence and access from Pakistan’s western borders.” Pakistan has said it privately, publicly and repeatedly. India has to up its game on its own.

Saleh said “India must create space for itself in international diplomacy vis-à-vis Afghanistan.” While western countries have gone “out of their way to appease Pakistan and find ways to accommodate their interests, India is hardly taken seriously at the international level.”

Indeed.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may appear sincere about improving ties with India. His overtures to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are “serious,” according to well-informed officials. Singh has responded positively, apparently agreeing to resuming dialogue without linking it to progress on bringing the Mumbai attackers to justice.

But ever since Sharif made his desire to improve relations with India known, he has faced an onslaught of negative press and an ISI-inspired campaign at home. He is being impeded at every step – just as Asif Ali Zardari was five years ago. Heightened anti-India rhetoric in Pakistan’s Urdu press is on the increase.

Silly claims that India conducted the Mumbai attacks on itself are being “discussed” even on “serious” English-language channels. So powerful is the campaign that even moderate Pakistanis have begun retracting from advocating peace with India. Reports say that Ramzaan this year brought a nasty harvest of anti-India speeches from mosques, especially from Lahore’s Al-Aqsa mosque along with a bounty of hateful SMS messages.

For Sharif to work against this tide and deliver on any peace moves with India is unlikely in the near term. India can hope that he outmaneuvers his military, but that would require a miracle. His decision to go after former ruler and army chief, Pervez Musharraf, the man who ousted him, has complicated the picture with the current chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.

At this time Kayani couldn’t care less about peace with India – he wants to keep the pressure on from both ends – via Taliban proxies in Afghanistan and via regulars on the LOC. That leaves very little space for peace making.