Look who is falling in love — India and Taliban

Even Lord Rama did it. You can’t fault Dr Manmohan Singh for emulating Rama’s example. When the Lord of Ayodhya moved his allied forces into Ceylon, he really didn’t have enough intelligence on the lay of the land, the advanced weaponry at Ravana’s disposal or the secret paths that the demon might take to escape. He needed to get inside information to formulate his battle strategy. At the same time, he also needed a friendly government in Colombo after the defeat of Ravana, to protect Indian interests there. So, when Ravana’s disillusioned and exiled brother Vibishana extended an arm of friendship, Rama accepted it gladly. The Taliban’s sudden peace overtures to India and our government’s surprising willingness to work with the Taliban have more similarities than differences with this climactic turnaround in Ramayana. In this week’s visit to Afghanistan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed support to the efforts of Hamid Karzai’s government to reconcile with the Taliban. “Afghanistan has embarked upon a process of national reconciliation. We wish you well in this enterprise,” Reuters quoted him as saying. This is a complete departure from India’s stance of 15 years ever since the Taliban took over the reins in Afghanistan through a bloody coup. It had refused to recognize the Taliban regime, had condemned its terrorist activities and helped promote the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and people like Karzai in the running of affairs in the land-locked nation. Now, by accepting the reintegration of the Taliban into Afghan mainstream politics, India has clearly signaled it will welcome a role for the group in the governance of Afghanistan. The U-turn has come just a month after the Taliban had extended an olive branch to India. In an insightful interview to Outlook India, the Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid had said in April that the Taliban and India could reconcile with each other. “We are not saying that India should get out of Afghanistan,” he said. “Nor can India be completely expelled from Afghanistan. The Taliban aren’t in any direct conflict with India… India and Afghanistan have had historic ties. If the Taliban returns to power, we would like to maintain normal relations with all countries, including India. It’s possible for the Taliban and India to reconcile with each other.” [caption id=“attachment_10102” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (C) shakes hands with Afghan officials as President Hamid Karzai (R) looks on at the presidential palace in Kabul May 12, 2011. Musadeq Sadeq/ Reuters”]  [/caption] Can there be a more revealing statement? Indian Express put succinctly when it said that New Delhi is “now all for an independent or neutral Afghanistan that does not require the crutches of neighbouring Pakistan.” If that means working with the Taliban, so be it. What forced the Taliban and India to accept each other? With the Hamid Karzai government becoming weaker by the day, the Taliban sees an opportunity to come back to power either on its own or in an alliance of convenience with other forces in Afghanistan. There are only two key hurdles that could prevent this from happening — the presence of American forces in Afghanistan and India. By now, it is very clear that America wants to get out of Afghanistan. The process will begin within a few weeks. That leaves only India as the stumbling block. The Taliban cannot wish away India because we enjoy immense goodwill among the people of Afghanistan. We have not sent our troops to add to the violence in that country and that has been noticed by everyone including the Taliban. We have executed several infrastructure and development projects there. Plus, the Taliban knows that we are quite interested in Afghanistan’s natural resources and won’t let go of the opportunity to mine them. The only option available to the Taliban is to befriend India and gain a role in a future government influenced by it. For India, it has become very clear that America’s exit from Afghanistan could put that nation squarely under the influence of Pakistan. When I read about Manmohan Singh’s statement in Afghanistan, I immediately called up a strategic affairs expert Sundeep Waslekar,  president of Strategic Foresight Group, to get a clearer understanding of the unfolding dynamics. He thinks the death of Osama bin Laden has sped up this diplomatic course correction because the time is running out for India in Afghanistan. He says that once the Americans go, it would only be a matter of time before the Karzai government is overthrown. And then Pakistan would have a free run in Afghanistan and could appoint its stooges to run the new government there. Waslekar believes that the US and Pakistan have entered into a deal under which the US got to kill Osama and Pakistan got to keep Afghanistan. Despite 10 years of combat, NATO forces have not eliminated the Taliban. In fact, the terrorist group had been winning territory in recent months. So, India cannot wish away the Taliban either. One face-saving tactic that India is expected to engage in is to distinguish between the ‘good’ Taliban and the ‘bad’ Taliban. India would be willing to talk to those sections of the Taliban that are not under the influence of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence, the chief trouble maker in the region. But Waslekar points out that this is only an artificial distinction. Splintered as it may be, the Taliban is still a terrorist group. Nevertheless, India seems to have come around to the view that it has to win over the Taliban to its side in order to keep Pakistan from driving India out of Afghanistan. Is this a bold, smart diplomatic move on India’s part? Or a morally indefensible abandonment of its principle of non-violence? You tell me.