Disputed territory: What US fighter aircrafts over China mean

A hugely important event in international politics has just taken place. It may well be a hark back to the infamous U-2 episode of 1960, though the two incidents have noting much in common except the deliberate provocation from one superpower of the time to another (the United States and Soviet Union in the U-2 incident). Followers of Indian media should not be faulted if they have missed out on this historic event because of late they have only been given the staple news diet of Aarushi murder case, Tarun Tejpal’s sexcapades, Asaram’s alleged multiple sexual escapades, Narendra Modi’s alleged snoopgate and his alleged obsession with a young woman half his age and the likes. But hang on! This pertains to a serious episode of international politics involving the only superpower (the US) and the uncrowned but yet non-existent rival superpower—China. On Monday (25 November), the US dispatched two B-52 fighter aircraft over the disputed East China Sea. The planes were unarmed. Significantly, the US deliberately violated rules, set by China, by refusing the Chinese authorities about the flight of the B-52 bombers. The American planes took off from an American military base in the region in Guam and flew over 2400 kms northwest and crossed into the newly declared new Air Defence Identification Zone ADIZ) of China. [caption id=“attachment_1255415” align=“alignright” width=“380”]  U.S. fighter jets fly near a military tanker aircraft during an aerial refueling run above Los Angeles. Reuters[/caption] This was a conscious, deliberate and well-thought policy initiative by the Americans to counter China’s increasingly aggressive moves in the East China Sea vis a vis Japan and to demonstrate Washington’s rock solid support for Japan. China remained a passive watcher as the B-52 bombers flew into its new air defence identification zone, though Beijing had warned of military action against any aircraft that were to enter this zone without notification. The Chinese did not even try to contact the “intruding” American fighter aircraft. The flight of the American B-52 bombers over China’s unilaterally announced ADIZ constituted the first ever challenge by the Americans to the Chinese pyrotechnics in the East China Sea and South China Sea regions. This is indubitably a major event involving the hot America-China-Japan triangular relationship wherein the US has walked its talk about its security guarantees to Japan. China announced its ADIZ to push the envelope about its claims over the Daiyou Islands (referred to ‘Senkaku Islands’ by the Japanese) in the region. The US has already said that its security umbrella for Japan covers Senkaku/Diayou Islands as well, the nerve center of the latest China-Japan territorial dispute. The American defiance of China’s so-called ADIZ demonstrates many things. First and foremost, it shows that the US is delivering on its promises to Japan. Two, it indicates that this the newest flashpoint in today’s international politics and the world should wait with bated breath how the situation evolves in the region – militarily and diplomatically. Three, it points to holes in theories of China having already replaced the former Soviet Union as the world’s second superpower. Actually, China is yet to get there. The incident shows China’s utter inability to police the so-called ADIZ. An extension of this argument would be that China is no superpower as many of its friends and admirers would be thinking wishfully and that China does not have the balls to take on the US; at least not just yet. Four, it would inevitably embolden Japan to take on China more pro-actively after the American show of support. This is already visible as Japan has already announced that its commercial airliners would not be abiding by China’s unilateral “rules” over its self-proclaimed ADIZ. The incident may well snowball into an ugly stand-off in the US-China-Japan triangle. Round One in the latest international flashpoint has gone to the US (directly) and Japan (indirectly). If China fails to match the American muscle-flexing, it would inevitably encourage and embolden lesser powers in the region like Vietnam and the Philippines – states openly opposed to China’s hegemony. India and Russia, two important powers in the Indo-Pacific strategic chess game, would most likely keep quiet and feign passivity and neutrality. But the fact is that both these powers will be keeping hawkish eye on the evolving situation. One does not expect India to take a position on the US-China-Japan triangular rivalry now or later; nor should New Delhi do so. However, the Indian strategic establishment would be hoping that that the US-China rivalry, which has for the first time taken such a significant turn, would continue. It will be in India’s interest if the US wins this game of nerves with China as it will make things easier for India in dealing with China’s “backyard” countries like Vietnam, Philippines and lot others. For China’s part, it will send a wrong signal to its friends and allies if it were to take the American show of belligerence lying low. The ball is in China’s court now. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.