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Will Donald Trump exit before 2019? Betting markets weigh in with gusto

A fresh influx of bets on Donald Trump exiting The White House before his full term have energised the world’s leading betting markets while the US President faces the grim prospect of returning to Washington DC that has more gunpowder ready for him after the shocking events of the last two weeks.

More and more traders on the online political stock market PredictIt are putting their money on a Trump exit before the end of 2018. "It's almost 50-50 that he won't be in office by the end of 2018”, PredictIt co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said on business telly.

US President Trump at the iconic Western Wall on his Israel visit/ Reuters

US President Trump at the iconic Western Wall on his Israel visit/ Reuters

In the absence of much statistical data to support either a yes or a no, the betting markets are reflecting popular opinion rather than feeding off numbers - impeachment is a historical rarity among 44 earlier Presidents and Nixon was not impeached, he resigned under pressure. If Trump has indeed reached impeachment territory, then the precedent of Nixon could hardly be comforting.

Matthew Shaddick, head of political odds at British Bookmaker Ladbrokes tells of about the sudden surge in people who want to bet on how long Trump's presidency will last.

Political punters have picked up on the problems that Trump’s been having. Right after the election, the odds were 3:1 that he wouldn’t be in office at the end of his first term and that’s coming to 4:6, so there’s a 6 per cent chance that he will resign or be impeached.

Bettors have lost an awful lot of money, calling both the Trump win in 2016 and Brexit wrong. It’ll be a tough payout for betting houses if Trump does get booted out.

Leading investment banks have also rushed in to brief their staff and clients on the bramble up ahead. Nomura has put out a research note saying impeachment is unlikely anytime soon but political gridlock is certain to derail pro growth agenda - this comes after Dow Jones suffered its biggest fall last week since September 2016.

"Removing Mr Trump will require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, and the chances of Republicans voting to impeach their own president seem low," Nomura said.

Meanwhile, bookies on Ladbrokes, a UK betting biggie, have cut the price into 4/5 from 11/10.

“Political punters are wondering how many more scandals can Trump overcome,” says Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes.

“Despite the short price on offer, money has poured in for the President to be impeached, leaving us with little option but to cut the odds.”

“This is less about what will happen and much more about how people are thinking”, Brandi Travis of PredicIt told Firstpost.

It’s not just impeachment that’s gotten betting markets hooked, it’s the appetizers that have people in splits - “How many @realDonaldTrump tweets will mention "Mueller" from noon 5/18 - noon 5/25?” has 88% betting on the number zero - on PredictIt.

Meanwhile, as Trump navigates his way through a carefully orchestrated safari through the deserts of Arabia, America’s leading newspapers critical of Trump’s methods are scouring every nook for the follow up to the Mueller story. Humiliated for months via Trump’s Twitter feed and the raw deal at White House press briefings, they are now upping their game with a two pronged attack on Jared Kushner — Trump’s son in law and special advisor and the President.

Two newspapers in particular - New York Times and Washington Post are taking a bludgeon to the story that’s yet to break - what all can Mueller do, how many ways can he do it and why the Comey firing has put the entire Trump Presidency into a full reckoning.

Apart from the bread and butter reporting on Trump’s entourage in the Middle East, the liberal media is pouring all its resources into developing a robust narrative which has the ability to outdo the teflon strength of Trump - how inexperience (Trump and Kushner's) is not opportunity but hazard to the country’s self respect.

For late night humor, Trump is a gift that keeps on giving.

Sample this fictional take on Kushner’s prep for the Middle East excursion: “There would be times when you’d have to wait five or even ten minutes for the ski lift, and that’s when I’d take out my phone and read up on the Middle East,” he said. “I really got into it.”

“I hear when he returns there’s a chance he’ll still be president,” Colbert said to wild cheers in his hit late night show.

Trump has called Colbert yet another “no talent” guy, the White House Communications team a “C grade” team, and the New York Times a “failing newspaper”.

On the strength of Colbert’s monologues on Trump, “The Late Show” has in fact spiralled to No. 1 in late-night ratings and the NYT reported improved first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations.


Published Date: May 23, 2017 02:34 AM | Updated Date: May 23, 2017 02:43 AM

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