Ukraine crisis becomes knottier as China backs Russia

As noted in an earlier column on the same subject here, the battle lines have been drawn on the newest and most serious global flashpoint: Ukraine. This may well be the new avatar of the Cold War with new dramatis personae. The G8 is threatening to remove Russia from its membership of the elite club of the world and may well return to its original nomenclature of G7, a grouping of leading industrialized nations minus Russia. The ongoing Ukraine crisis is a God-send for the hardliners in the original G7 who did not want the grouping to be expanded to accommodate Russia and will be happy to use the Ukraine crisis to send Russia packing, irrespective of how crisis-management efforts pan out. [caption id=“attachment_1417887” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AP[/caption] The G7 met in Washington on Monday and tightened diplomatic screws on Russia. The G7 issued a joint statement. A notable thing is that the G7 leaders followed the expected script over the Ukraine crisis without wasting time. G7 leaders have also threatened to do an Iran or a Libya or a North Korea with Russia by imposing crippling sanctions. Russia should not underestimate the efficacy of such punitive economic measures as the last time when the West had done this to Russia in 2008 during the war over Georgia, the rouble plunged by 30 per cent. Russian President Vladimir Putin must also be aware of the fact that the Russian economy can hardly cope with international sanctions when its economy grew at a snail’s pace of 1.3 percent last year. But here is the Russian counter: In Firstpost, we had put forward a key question in the earlier write-up whether the Russians would be able to muster support from the international community, particularly China, over the Ukraine gamble. This seems to have happened and Russia appears (emphasis added) to have got the Chinese by their side. China’s state-owned news agency Xinhua accused the Weste of adopting a Cold War-like mindset towards Russia and trying to isolate Moscow at a time when much needed mediation is need to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Crimea. It is a normal practice with China to air its foreign policy thoughts on major international issues through its state-owned media. In this context, the following paragraph from an opinion piece carried by Xinhua assumes an even greater significance: “Based on the fact that Russia and Ukraine have deep cultural, historical and economic connections, it is time for Western powers to abandon their Cold War thinking. Stop trying to exclude Russia from the political crisis they failed to mediate, and respect Russia’s unique role in mapping out the future of Ukraine… Right now, the West should show more appreciation for what Russia can do to solve the crisis in Ukraine. Given Russia’s historical and cultural influence in the country, the Kremlin is the piece that cannot be missing in this political puzzle.” However, a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry quoted by the Russian Itar-Tass news agency spoke in far more diluted terms: “The foreign ministers of both countries exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine. They noted the coincidence of positions on this aspect.” Going by the reading of the Chinese tea leaves as filtered through its state-controlled media it offers fairly substantial evidence that the Chinese have, after all, lent their support to the Russians over Ukraine. If this is indeed so and if the official Chinese position over the Ukraine crisis indeed coalesces with what is being through the Chinese state-owned media, then the Russians have definitely managed a soft coup of sorts over the West. This would make it even more difficult for the G7 to push the Russians the way they have done so with the Iranians and the North Koreans in the past. After all Russia supported by China makes it far more difficult for any power on earth to have its way even if that power happens to be the group of seven most industrialized nations of the world. In a nutshell, the Ukraine crisis has just become more complex than an enigma wrapped in a mystery and the new Cold War may have new actors. The battle lines have indeed been drawn. ——— *The writer is a FirstPost columnist and New Delhi-based strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.