PM's ASEAN visit: The China factor will lurk in the shadows

For the next four days, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be headlong into Southeast Asian strategic matrix where China is a feared neighbour and is seen by many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states as a domineering power. China will be the Shakespearean Banquo’s ghost as Manmohan Singh, during his Brunei visit (9-10 October) participates in the 11th ASEAN-India Summit and the 8th East Asia Summit (EAS). And Banquo’s ghost will be lurking during Singh’s next stop Indonesia where he would be on a bilateral visit on 11-12 October. In declarations at the end of the ASEAN-India Summit and East Asia Summit in Brunei and in Joint Declaration at the end of Singh’s Indonesia visit, China will not figure by name, but the C word would be permeating in the air. The reason for this is not far to seek as China has upped its ante and been flexing its economic and military muscles since 2009 over the South China Sea issue. China’s sovereignty claims over South China Sea cover a vast majority of these international waters and stretch right up to Philippines’ shore lines. China’s hands-on approach on the South China Sea issue has set the proverbial cat among the ASEAN nations, particularly Philippines and Vietnam. [caption id=“attachment_1161715” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] General view of the meeting room at the 23rd ASEAN Summit in Bandar Seri Begawan. Reuters[/caption] India has consistently maintained that the South China Sea is an international water body and no country can lay sovereignty claims over it. In December last year, Indian Navy Chief Admiral DK Joshi had sent a stern message to China by saying that the Indian Navy was preparing for the contingency that could be called upon by the Indian government to protect Indian economic interests in the South China Sea region. Sample Admiral Joshi’s on-record quote on the occasion of Navy Day last year: “Not that we expect to be in those (South China Sea) waters very very frequently, but when the requirement is there, for example in situations where our country’s interests are involved, for example ONGC Videsh etc, we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that. Are we preparing for it? Are we holding exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes.” Some 17 days later, this writer asked External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid for his reaction to the Naval Chief’s remarks. Surprisingly, Khurshid did not parry the question (which he could) or dismiss it with a one-line standard answer (which diplomats usually do) or give a verbose answer without much substance (which politicians are so infamous for). Instead Khurshid gave a long and comprehensive to this writer’s question (607 words, to be precise) at his 21 December, 2012 press conference in New Delhi after the conclusion of ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit. A specific part of this writer’s question to Khurshid was that at the just-concluded event, Vietnam was the only country which mentioned China by name and expressed concerns over Chinese policy on South China Sea. Almost ten months later, Khurshid’s answer is still highly relevant and is worth being reproduced in full. Here it is: As far as the Indian Navy Chief is concerned, I would urge you to factor in the vocabulary, the style and the manner in which a person trained in the armed forces speaks. I think that you will be unfair to him if plain-speaking, which is what the armed forces are accustomed to doing, is taken on a level that creates ambiguity about how one approaches it in terms of bilateral relations. He is not responsible for bilateral relations. He is responsible for a specific job which he does well. He is an outstanding soldier. I think you must treat a soldier as a soldier; and you must treat a politician as a politician, and a diplomat as a diplomat. Do not confuse their roles. As far as China is concerned, this or any other matter, we do not believe that there is for us vis-à-vis China any matter that comes anywhere near undermining what is an extremely beneficial, wholesome and a substantive relationship with China. And it has grown - if I cannot use the word by leaps and bounds - by steady steps towards the direction and a destination that we both share. We believe that good and wholesome relations between India and China are not only good for ourselves mutually but are also good for all of Asia and indeed for the rest of the world. A lot of people look upon us with great hope that India and China can collaborate, cooperate, and be strategic partners. This is an important dimension that we would urge you to keep in mind. There will be from time to time issues that will arise on which it is possible that we have a difference of opinion, that we have a difference of emphasis. There may be issues that arise between China and some other country on which we may have an opinion if we are asked for it. But we do not have to go looking for intervention or interference where it is not called for. I think every country in the region is capable of dealing with its problems with all of us as and when they arise. If it is a bilateral issue, it should be dealt with bilaterally. If it comes in a multilateral frame, then of course we will look at it multilaterally to the extent the rules of the game permit looking at it multilaterally. This was today a partnership for peace and prosperity between ASEAN and India where we were not looking at bilateral issues of either the countries involved in the ASEAN region, or other countries in that region or in the vicinity. So, this is not a matter that was on the agenda. Of course it was raised by Vietnam. We noted it. And I think that is the best that we can do. We have already stated our commitment to international law of the sea; we have stated our commitment to freedom of navigation; and we have very categorically said that what we have off shore from Vietnam in terms of prospecting for oil is something that goes back to 1988 and not something that we are trying to barge into now. ONGC has been prospecting for oil. It is a commercial arrangement with Vietnam. Sovereignty issues between Vietnam and any other country, between China and any other country, could be settled bilaterally. This has been our position. I think we do not think that issues such as that should necessarily detract from the larger canvas and picture that we are concentrating on in a summit of this nature. And that is the attitude we have taken. More recently, India’s diplomatic stand on the issue was articulated by Ashok Kantha, Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs at an on-record briefing on 7 October, Monday, thus: “The issue of South China Sea has been getting attention at EAS as well as ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum), as also at various ASEAN Summits with partner countries. As far as India’s position on this issue is concerned, I think it has been fairly unambiguous. Protection of maritime commons, we believe, is an issue of increasing relevance to growing economies of East Asia. “We have consistently reaffirmed the unimpeded right of passage and other maritime rights in accordance with accepted principles of international law. We believe that the sovereignty issues that you referred to must be resolved peacefully by all countries concerned in accordance with international law. We oppose the use or threat of use of force. We welcome some recent developments including the collective commitment by the concerned countries to abide by and implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea, and to work towards the adoption of a code of conduct in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus.” Coming back to the 10-nation ASEAN member states’ unease with China, it is not just Philippines and Vietnam that are chary of China. Most ASEAN countries are not comfortable with the idea of being left alone with China. Not unsurprisingly, therefore, ASEAN nations have been cementing all-round ties with India as they feel that just having good ties with known rivals of China – the United States and Japan – will not be enough. The die has long been cast and the great game of rivalries on the strategic Southeast Asian chessboard is in full swing. And China cannot complain against the rather pro-active Indian engagement with Southeast Asia as India has been pursuing “Look East” policy since 1991, thanks to the sagacity and far-sightedness of the then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao. It is against this backdrop that Manmohan Singh’s current trip to Brunei and Indonesia should be looked at. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst. His Twitter handle is @Kishkindha