Post-Osama, Pak prepares to dump US, court China

By B. Raman Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by US naval commandos who killed Osama bin Laden , and as a mark of its indignation over US allegations and suspicions regarding possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence in facilitating bin Laden’s stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years? According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan’s sovereignty by US drone aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and by naval commandos at Abbottabad. [caption id=“attachment_9436” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“The reputation that Chief of Army Staff, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, enjoyed until now in the eyes of the lower and middle level officers – as a quiet but strong man - has been dented post the Abbottabad operation. Ho New/Reuters”]  [/caption] The violation of sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of Pakistan’s armed forces. The reputation that Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, enjoyed until now in the eyes of these officers – as a quiet but strong man - has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong. Kayani’s visits last week to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders’ conference at the GHQ in Rawalpindi, during which he explained why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise, were motivated by concerns over the damage to the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers. According to these sources, at the Corps Commanders conference, many officers voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership - particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani - to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the US Administration, including Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon Panetta, who co-ordinated the commando raid. The aggressive anti-US remarks from Gilani in his speech to the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISI. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army’s disillusionment with Zardari’s leadership is showing signs of increasing, and the pressure on him to exit is likely to increase. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Quereshi over their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of US assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend - should Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance. Gilani will seek to ascertain the level of China’s support during his four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week, would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. (B. Raman, is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, India, and is currently Director of the Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Reprinted with permission from the Chennai Centre for China Studies.)