India, China lose: Turkey, Argentina the new growth kings

The global recession may not have significantly impacted growth in countries like India and China, but it has definitely impacted their growth rankings in the world.

In the first quarter of 2011, China and India were no longer the two fastest growing economies. In fact their rankings fell to a humble No 4 and No 6 respectively during the first quarter, according to figures for 58 countries released by The Economist. This is the latest quarter for which data are available across all major economies.

[caption id=“attachment_75879” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Turkey replaced China in terms of growth ranking. Reuters”]  [/caption]

For the first quarter of 2011, the fastest growing economies are Turkey, Argentina and Chile, with annual growth rates of 11 percent, 9.9 percent and 9.8 percent respectively.

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Table:

China comes in at the fourth spot with a growth of 9.7 percent and Estonia at No 5 with 8.4 percent growth. India’s growth, at No 6, is at 7.8 percent.

A look at the numbers suggests an interesting evolution in trends. The fall in China’s and India’s positions is not so much due to their own growth rates taking a beating, but because other countries are growing at a stellar rate now.

It does need to be added, however, that while China and India are still growing at healthy rates, the recession has probably prevented even higher growth, which could have brought them closer to the fastest-growing economies.

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Over the course of the year, though, prospects for China and India look relatively better. Forecasts for 2011 indicate that China is still expected to be the leader in global growth, with 9 percent, though India does give up its second position to Argentina.

While India’s growth is expected to be at 7.9 percent, Argentina is expected to grow by 8.3 percent. Turkey, Chile and Estonia, somewhat surprisingly, are expected to grow at sub-7 percent rates. Either that, or the global growth rankings are in for some shuffling.