Is China buying a $42 bn insurance policy from Pakistan?

China-Pakistan relationship has been topping the radar screens of the Indian security and intelligence establishments. The latest stunning development in China-Pakistan relations – the news of China agreeing to invest $42 billion in Pakistan– wouldn’t have obviously gone unnoticed by the Indian strategic establishment which has been keeping a tab on the two countries India has fought wars with. The truth is starkly different. China and Pakistan may have repeatedly claimed that their friendship is higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey, but the reality is that when it comes to China loosening its purse strings by way of economic aid or investments the Chinese have been miserly towards Pakistan. Consider the statistics of a prestigious American think tank given below. [caption id=“attachment_1795761” align=“aligncenter” width=“582”]  Details[/caption] Pakistan’s top civil and military leaders – their presidents, prime ministers, army chiefs and ISI chiefs – have been visiting China at the drop of a hat. After all such visits to Beijing, the Pakistani leaders have been making tall claims. But all such claims have proven to be empty words. Therefore, one will have to wait and watch about the veracity of one more such claim made by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after his recent visit to China. Sharif announced on 8 November in Beijing that China had promised Pakistan an investment of a whopping $42 billion, most of which will be parked in Pakistan’s energy sector. While commenting on the 19 agreements and MoUs signed between Pakistan and China during Sharif’s visit to China, Amir Zamir, spokesman for Pakistan’s ministry of planning and development, made the following on-record remarks to the press: “The deals being signed between China and Pakistan are worth $42 billion. The whole investment is being made by China. There is no loan or aid for the energy projects, but pure investment by the Chinese.” Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating! This seems to be plain bluster. No country has parked so much money in Pakistan for “investment” purposes as Islamabad has claimed from the roof tops. Even China, for that matter, has been “talking” about its upcoming investments in Pakistan’s energy sector, particularly nuclear energy. But this has remained in the realm of words only; with little investments actually flowing into Pakistan. Chinese President Xi Jinping was to travel to Pakistan but he canceled his visit at the last minute in September, though he traveled to India in the same month. In a way, Xi dehyphenated India from Pakistan. During his India visit, Xi had announced $20 billion Chinese investment in India for the next five years. Islamabad must have noted this and squirmed over the development. Here was their “all-weather” friend and ally which does not invest much in their country but loosens up its purse strings for the arch-rivals India! Therefore, the $42 billion promised “Chinese investments” in Pakistan is Islamabad’s way of squaring it with India and an attempt at scoring a brownie point over India. But the Chinese are far smarter. They put their money only when they are sure of deriving maximum strategic benefits. Even if one were to believe that China is going to invest $42 billion in Pakistan (and no time frame of Chinese investments is given by either side) it is pertinent to note in what context this reported Chinese “pledge” has come about. China is feeling the heat of the jihadist terror and knows very well that Pakistan is the cradle and fountainhead of such terror outfits. China has repeatedly made uncharitable remarks about Pakistan’s role in harbouring these jihadist forces which, of course, have not been China-centric but off and on have hit China badly. At the same time, China cannot afford to dump Pakistan. China needs Pakistan badly for strategic reasons. China has been reaching out to Central Asia and to the Muslim world through Pakistan. This is the China-Pakistan strategic template which is not going to change significantly in the coming years no matter howsoever poor Pakistan’s track record on the terror issue has been or will be. The only way of looking at the Chinese promise of pouring $42 billion worth investment in Pakistan, if it turns out to true this time around, is that this is in lieu of the help that Pakistan is going to give to China with regard to jihadist forces active in China’s restive Xinjiang region. Significantly, the Chinese foreign ministry highlighted this part of the arrangement with Pakistan – and not the Chinese promise of $42 billion investment in Pakistan. The Chinese foreign ministry quoted Nawaz Sharif as having said that Pakistan would “resolutely fight the East Turkestan Islamic Movement terrorist force.” If the promised $42 billion worth Chinese investments were indeed to flow into Pakistan, then this seems to be a price tag for China buying an insurance policy from Pakistan that in exchange Pakistan-based jihadist forces would no longer be troubling China. In other words, China is buying a $42 billion insurance policy from Pakistan! This is virtually a ransom being paid by China to Pakistan for keeping its China-specific terrorists in check. In the Indian sub-continent this is known as “hafta” or the weekly protection money that is extracted by goons. *The writer is FirstPost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.